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v0.1
MGPI$17.07-3.29%
Fair $17.07+0.0%

MGPI

MGP Ingredients, Inc.

Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesNasdaqGS

$17.07

-0.58 (-3.29%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $17.07Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 24/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $31.1M · quality 61.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 55/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

24/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 2unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -15.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · MGPILocal privado en este navegador · MGP Ingredients, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$365M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-15.0%

↓

Gross Margin

37.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.37

↑
52-Week Range$17
$16$33

TradingView lightweight chart

MGPI price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $17.07Periodo +355.2%
Fair value: $17.07

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.9%

FCF CAGR

+30.4%

FCF margin

14.2%

FCF / Net income

-0.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $536.4M · net income $-107.8M · FCF $76.0M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

37.2%+48.9% pts

Operating margin

15.6%+42.6% pts

Net margin

-20.1%+3.6% pts

FCF margin

14.2%+13.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$536.4M$536.4M$703.6M$836.5M$782.4M$626.7M$395.5M$362.7M$376.1M$347.4M$318.3M$327.6M$16.3M$12.7M——$202.0M$291.8M
Net Income$-107.8M$-107.8M$34.7M$107.5M$109.5M$91.3M$40.3M$38.8M$37.3M$41.8M$31.2M$26.2M$23.7M$-4.9M$1.6M—$8.7M$-69.1M
EBITDA$-69.2M$-69.2M$98.9M$170.5M$167.1M$145.5M$67.2M$58.8M$61.5M$54.2M$53.2M$45.2M$28.9M$6.8M$10.6M—$15.9M$-67.1M
EPS-4.99-4.991.564.804.924.372.372.27———1.481.32-0.290.09—0.51-4.17
Gross Margin37.2%37.2%40.7%36.4%32.4%31.7%25.0%21.1%22.2%21.9%20.5%17.9%174.4%167.7%——15.1%-11.7%
Operating Margin15.6%15.6%23.4%20.9%19.0%20.2%13.7%13.0%13.3%12.3%13.2%10.0%101.9%-41.1%——3.6%-27.1%
Net Margin-20.1%-20.1%4.9%12.8%14.0%14.6%10.2%10.7%9.9%12.0%9.8%8.0%145.2%-38.9%——4.3%-23.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.370.370.410.350.330.050.150.180.100.130.250.290.10——0.080.03—
Current Ratio2.742.74————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$76.0M$76.0M$31.1M$28.5M$43.6M$40.9M$33.6M$3.0M$2.4M$12.4M$1.8M$-11.9M$8.9M$11.1M$-14.3M—$30.6M$1.1M
Returns
ROE-15.0%-15.0%4.2%12.6%14.7%14.2%15.4%16.8%18.5%24.8%21.3%22.5%22.7%-6.0%1.9%—12.0%-108.2%
Valuation
P/E——24.5019.4220.45—————————————
EV/EBITDA——11.6913.7814.46—————————————
P/B0.510.511.012.432.97—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-23.8%-23.8%-15.9%6.9%—58.5%9.0%-3.5%8.2%9.2%-2.9%1909.1%28.7%———-30.8%—
EPS Growth-419.9%-419.9%-67.5%-2.4%—84.4%4.4%————12.1%555.2%-422.2%——112.2%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -39.2%

Total return

-39.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

1.56 → -4.99

Residual

-42.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-42.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.