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MPC$258.66+3.98%
Fair $258.66+0.0%

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingNYSE

$258.66

+9.89 (+3.98%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $258.66Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $6.1B · quality 56.7/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 60/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 1unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · MPCLocal privado en este navegador · Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$75.5B

P/E

17.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.4x

↑

ROE

23.4%

↑

Gross Margin

7.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.98

↑
52-Week Range$259
$156$264

TradingView lightweight chart

MPC price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $258.66Periodo +1288.8%
Fair value: $258.66

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.6%

FCF / Net income

1.18x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $132.70B · net income $4.05B · FCF $4.77B

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.5%— pts

Operating margin

4.3%+2.5% pts

Net margin

3.0%+2.1% pts

FCF margin

3.6%+4.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$132.70B$132.70B$138.86B$148.38B$177.45B$119.98B$69.78B$111.15B$86.09B——$72.05B$97.82B$100.16B$82.24B$78.64B$62.49B$45.53B
Net Income$4.05B$4.05B$3.44B$9.68B$14.52B$9.74B$-9.83B$2.64B$2.78B$3.43B$1.17B$2.85B$2.52B$2.11B$3.39B$2.39B$623.0M$449.0M
EBITDA$11.68B$11.68B$10.60B$18.56B$24.88B$7.66B$-8.87B$7.69B$6.86B$6.13B$4.39B$6.19B$5.38B$4.64B$6.34B$4.64B$1.95B$1.51B
EPS13.2213.2210.0823.6328.1215.24-15.133.975.286.702.215.264.393.324.953.330.870.63
Gross Margin7.5%7.5%6.7%11.1%12.7%—————————————
Operating Margin4.3%4.3%3.8%8.5%10.7%3.6%-17.6%4.0%5.4%——6.5%4.1%3.4%6.5%4.8%1.6%1.8%
Net Margin3.0%3.0%2.5%6.5%8.2%8.1%-14.1%2.4%3.2%——4.0%2.6%2.1%4.1%3.0%1.0%1.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.981.981.621.171.01——————————0.350.03—
Current Ratio1.181.18————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.77B$4.77B$6.13B$12.23B$13.94B$2.90B$-368.0M$4.63B$2.98B$3.88B$1.13B$2.08B$1.63B$2.20B$3.12B$2.12B$1.00B$-436.0M
Returns
ROE23.4%23.4%19.4%39.7%52.4%37.2%-44.3%7.8%7.9%24.5%8.7%21.5%23.5%19.3%29.0%25.1%7.6%4.9%
Valuation
P/E17.0417.0414.166.454.15—————————————
EV/EBITDA9.419.417.004.603.20—————————————
P/B4.574.572.742.562.17—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.4%-4.4%-6.4%-16.4%—71.9%-37.2%29.1%———-26.3%-2.3%21.8%4.6%25.8%37.2%—
EPS Growth31.2%31.2%-57.3%-16.0%—200.7%-481.1%-24.8%-21.2%203.2%-58.0%19.8%32.2%-32.9%48.3%283.3%39.2%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

20.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$22.95

Spread vs growth

11.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$27.77

Spread vs growth

15.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$44.73

Spread vs growth

18.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +62.4%

Total return

+62.4%

Start / end P/E

15.9x → 19.6x

EPS bridge

10.08 → 13.22

Residual

+7.1%

EPS growth+31.2%
Multiple rerating+22.7%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+7.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.