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Recent

v0.1
MSFT$418.57+0.00%
Fair $241.73-42.2%

MSFT

Microsoft Corporation

Technology / Software - InfrastructureNasdaqGS

$418.57

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Modestly Overvalued-42.2%Fair Value $241.73Fund rank 47/100 · PassSEC 18/18 yrs|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 5/9
Significantly Overvalued

FCF base 3Y

$244.36

-16.4% CAGR · yield 5.0%

FCF base 5Y

$286.19

-7.3% base · -6.0% expected

Precio de entrada

$136.33

MOS 16% · confianza 93%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $71.6B · quality 82.3/100

Pass 47/100
Bear 5Y$162.21-17.3%
Base 5Y$286.19-7.3%
Bull 5Y$495.64+3.4%
Return 10/100Downside 27/100Model quality 91/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

8/100

-42.2% upside

5Y CAGR

-6.0%

26/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 18Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 18
Estimated downside of 42.2% from current price
Thesis & Journal · MSFTLocal privado en este navegador · Microsoft Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.11T

P/E

30.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

29.6%

↑

Gross Margin

68.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.13

↓
No hay histórico de precio usable para pintar el gráfico TradingView.

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2025 · 17 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.5%

FCF CAGR

+8.3%

FCF margin

25.4%

FCF / Net income

0.70x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $281.72B · net income $101.83B · FCF $71.61B

2008-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

68.8%-12.0% pts

Operating margin

45.6%+8.8% pts

Net margin

36.1%+6.9% pts

FCF margin

25.4%-5.1% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$281.72B$281.72B$245.12B$211.91B$198.27B$168.09B$143.01B$125.84B$110.36B$96.57B$91.15B$93.58B$86.83B$19.90B$73.72B$17.37B$62.48B$58.44B$60.42B
Net Income$101.83B$101.83B$88.14B$72.36B$72.74B$61.27B$44.28B$39.24B$16.57B$25.49B$20.54B$12.19B$22.07B$4.96B$16.98B$5.87B$18.76B$14.57B$17.68B
EPS13.6413.6411.809.689.658.055.765.062.133.252.561.482.630.592.000.692.101.621.87
Gross Margin68.8%68.8%69.8%68.9%68.4%68.9%67.8%65.9%65.2%64.5%64.0%64.7%68.8%71.8%76.2%78.6%80.2%79.2%80.8%
Operating Margin45.6%45.6%44.6%41.8%42.1%41.6%37.0%34.1%31.8%30.1%28.6%19.4%32.0%134.5%29.5%156.4%38.6%34.8%36.9%
Net Margin36.1%36.1%36.0%34.1%36.7%36.5%31.0%31.2%15.0%26.4%22.5%13.0%25.4%25.0%23.0%33.8%30.0%24.9%29.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.130.130.170.230.300.410.540.710.920.880.490.380.230.200.180.210.110.09—
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$71.61B$71.61B$74.07B$59.48B$65.15B$56.12B$45.23B$38.26B$32.25B$31.38B$24.98B——$24.58B$29.32B$24.64B$22.10B$15.92B$18.43B
Returns
ROE29.6%29.6%32.8%35.1%43.7%43.2%37.4%38.3%20.0%29.1%24.7%15.2%24.6%6.3%25.6%10.3%40.6%36.8%48.7%
Valuation
P/E30.6930.6935.4743.2443.3852.0072.6782.72196.51128.79163.50282.82159.15709.44209.28606.62199.32258.38223.83
P/B9.109.1011.6415.1718.9522.4327.1831.7139.4437.3840.3743.1439.1644.9153.6563.0180.9295.19109.24
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.9%14.9%15.7%6.9%18.0%17.5%13.6%14.0%14.3%5.9%-2.6%7.8%336.4%-73.0%324.5%-72.2%6.9%-3.3%—
EPS Growth15.6%15.6%21.9%0.3%19.9%39.8%13.8%137.6%-34.5%27.0%73.0%-43.7%345.8%-70.5%189.9%-67.1%29.6%-13.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

39.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$37.14

Spread vs growth

-24.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

26.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$44.94

Spread vs growth

-11.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$72.38

Spread vs growth

-2.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · available periodreconcilia total n/d
Return attribution requires positive start and end prices.

Unavailable: positive start/end prices are required.