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MTL.TO$22.02+1.01%
Fair $22.02+0.0%

MTL.TO

Mullen Group Ltd.

Industrials / TruckingToronto

$22.02

+0.22 (+1.01%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $22.02Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $210.2M · quality 75.7/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 83/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · MTL.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Mullen Group Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.1B

P/E

21.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.3x

↓

ROE

8.0%

↑

Gross Margin

23.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.92

↑
52-Week Range$22
$13$22

TradingView lightweight chart

MTL.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $22.02Periodo +214.6%
Fair value: $22.02

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.2%

FCF CAGR

+5.0%

FCF margin

9.9%

FCF / Net income

2.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.13B · net income $91.1M · FCF $210.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.1%+0.2% pts

Operating margin

7.9%-2.9% pts

Net margin

4.3%-3.7% pts

FCF margin

9.9%+0.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.13B$2.13B$1.99B$1.99B$2.00B
Net Income$91.1M$91.1M$112.3M$136.7M$158.6M
EBITDA$327.1M$327.1M$333.0M$336.9M$358.8M
EPS1.001.001.231.451.62
Gross Margin23.1%23.1%23.8%23.8%23.0%
Operating Margin7.9%7.9%10.1%10.6%10.9%
Net Margin4.3%4.3%5.6%6.9%7.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.920.920.980.780.73
Current Ratio2.082.08———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$210.2M$210.2M$224.6M$175.1M$181.6M
Returns
ROE8.0%8.0%11.0%14.0%16.3%
Valuation
P/E21.5921.5912.039.749.41
EV/EBITDA9.279.276.946.426.31
P/B1.861.861.421.441.60
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.3%7.3%-0.3%-0.2%—
EPS Growth-18.7%-18.7%-15.2%-10.5%—
Dividend Yield3.8%3.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

25.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.95

Spread vs growth

-43.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

18.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.36

Spread vs growth

-37.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.81

Spread vs growth

-33.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +61.7%

Total return

+61.7%

Start / end P/E

11.3x → 22.0x

EPS bridge

1.23 → 1.00

Residual

-17.6%

EPS growth-18.7%
Multiple rerating+94.2%
Dividend+3.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-17.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.