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MTSA4.SA$42.31-6.00%
Fair $42.31+0.0%

MTSA4.SA

METISA Metalúrgica Timboense S.A.

Industrials / Farm & Heavy Construction MachinerySão Paulo

$42.31

-2.70 (-6.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $42.31Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $64.1M · quality 74.7/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 67/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · MTSA4.SALocal privado en este navegador · METISA Metalúrgica Timboense S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$361M

P/E

9.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.2x

↓

ROE

8.9%

↑

Gross Margin

22.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.18

↓
52-Week Range$42
$39$65

TradingView lightweight chart

MTSA4.SA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $42.31Periodo +72.7%
Fair value: $42.31

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-12.6%

FCF CAGR

-7.5%

FCF margin

12.0%

FCF / Net income

1.58x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $532.6M · net income $40.7M · FCF $64.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.5%-7.8% pts

Operating margin

5.8%-8.9% pts

Net margin

7.6%-3.9% pts

FCF margin

12.0%+1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$532.6M$532.6M$505.1M$572.8M$798.3M
Net Income$40.7M$40.7M$30.5M$87.3M$91.8M
EBITDA$73.6M$73.6M$59.3M$125.9M$143.3M
EPS4.534.533.349.489.92
Gross Margin22.5%22.5%22.7%27.3%30.3%
Operating Margin5.8%5.8%5.9%10.4%14.7%
Net Margin7.6%7.6%6.0%15.2%11.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.180.180.100.060.13
Current Ratio4.914.91———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$64.1M$64.1M$46.1M$147.2M$80.9M
Returns
ROE8.9%8.9%6.6%19.7%23.9%
Valuation
P/E9.739.7311.695.244.23
EV/EBITDA3.163.163.952.602.46
P/B0.830.830.781.031.01
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.4%5.4%-11.8%-28.2%—
EPS Growth36.0%36.0%-64.8%-4.4%—
Dividend Yield7.3%7.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-6.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$3.75

Spread vs growth

42.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$4.54

Spread vs growth

35.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

4.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$7.32

Spread vs growth

31.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +3.5%

Total return

+3.5%

Start / end P/E

13.2x → 9.3x

EPS bridge

3.34 → 4.53

Residual

-10.5%

EPS growth+36.0%
Multiple rerating-29.2%
Dividend+7.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.