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NCK.AX$13.85-3.35%
Fair $13.85+0.0%

NCK.AX

Nick Scali Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailASX

$13.85

-0.48 (-3.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.85Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $102.7M · quality 76.7/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 91/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · NCK.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Nick Scali Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.2B

P/E

17.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.9x

↓

ROE

21.6%

↑

Gross Margin

63.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.19

↑
52-Week Range$14
$13$26

TradingView lightweight chart

NCK.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.85Periodo +1285.0%
Fair value: $13.85

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.9%

FCF CAGR

-0.8%

FCF margin

20.4%

FCF / Net income

1.75x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $495.3M · net income $57.7M · FCF $100.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

63.5%+2.5% pts

Operating margin

20.5%-6.5% pts

Net margin

11.6%-5.3% pts

FCF margin

20.4%-3.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$495.3M$495.3M$468.2M$507.7M$441.0M
Net Income$57.7M$57.7M$80.6M$101.1M$74.9M
EBITDA$157.5M$157.5M$176.9M$199.5M$158.8M
EPS0.680.680.991.250.93
Gross Margin63.5%63.5%65.5%63.5%61.0%
Operating Margin20.5%20.5%27.2%30.0%27.0%
Net Margin11.6%11.6%17.2%19.9%17.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.191.191.241.772.34
Current Ratio1.061.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$100.9M$100.9M$102.7M$125.0M$103.4M
Returns
ROE21.6%21.6%31.3%56.2%53.2%
Valuation
P/E17.3117.3113.407.399.95
EV/EBITDA8.888.887.464.896.30
P/B4.444.444.194.155.29
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.8%5.8%-7.8%15.1%—
EPS Growth-31.6%-31.6%-20.9%34.9%—
Dividend Yield5.4%5.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

22.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.23

Spread vs growth

-53.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.49

Spread vs growth

-48.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.39

Spread vs growth

-45.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -22.3%

Total return

-22.3%

Start / end P/E

19.4x → 20.5x

EPS bridge

0.99 → 0.68

Residual

-1.8%

EPS growth-31.6%
Multiple rerating+5.7%
Dividend+5.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.