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NELLY.ST$33.60-2.10%
Fair $33.60+0.0%

NELLY.ST

Nelly Group AB (publ)

Consumer Cyclical / Apparel RetailStockholm

$33.60

-0.72 (-2.10%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $33.60Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $91.1M · quality 41.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · NELLY.STLocal privado en este navegador · Nelly Group AB (publ)
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.0B

P/E

6.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.7x

↓

ROE

41.5%

↑

Gross Margin

54.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.71

↑
52-Week Range$34
$33$136

TradingView lightweight chart

NELLY.ST price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $33.60Periodo -42.2%
Fair value: $33.60

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.2%

FCF / Net income

0.54x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.26B · net income $168.5M · FCF $91.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

54.3%+10.7% pts

Operating margin

13.1%+17.3% pts

Net margin

13.3%+18.9% pts

FCF margin

7.2%+13.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.26B$1.26B$1.09B$1.06B$1.30B
Net Income$168.5M$168.5M$83.4M$-1.5M$-71.7M
EBITDA$223.1M$223.1M$152.2M$63.6M$-14.5M
EPS5.625.622.78-0.06-3.32
Gross Margin54.3%54.3%53.1%47.9%43.6%
Operating Margin13.1%13.1%8.5%1.3%-4.2%
Net Margin13.3%13.3%7.6%-0.1%-5.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.710.711.211.592.21
Current Ratio1.621.62———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$91.1M$91.1M$132.2M$36.4M$-76.1M
Returns
ROE41.5%41.5%35.2%-0.8%-53.7%
Valuation
P/E6.406.4010.77——
EV/EBITDA4.674.676.499.31—
P/B2.482.483.792.411.15
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth15.5%15.5%3.2%-18.3%—
EPS Growth102.2%102.2%4733.3%98.2%—
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-19.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.98

Spread vs growth

121.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-8.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$3.61

Spread vs growth

110.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$5.81

Spread vs growth

101.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -22.5%

Total return

-22.5%

Start / end P/E

15.8x → 6.0x

EPS bridge

2.78 → 5.62

Residual

-63.4%

EPS growth+102.2%
Multiple rerating-62.1%
Dividend+0.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-63.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.