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NELY.JK$195.00+11.43%
Fair $195.00+0.0%

NELY.JK

PT Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Tbk

Industrials / Marine ShippingJakartaID

$195.00

+20.00 (+11.43%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $195.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $76.8B · quality 47.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: eodhdPeriods: 17Warnings: 2eodhd: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 4.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · NELY.JKLocal privado en este navegador · PT Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Tbk
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$458.3B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

4.3%

↓

Gross Margin

20.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.23

↓
52-Week Range$195
$160$555

TradingView lightweight chart

NELY.JK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $195.00Periodo -4.9%
Fair value: $195.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-24.3%

FCF / Net income

-2.40x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $392.72B · net income $39.76B · FCF $-95.52B

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.9%— pts

Operating margin

11.5%-15.7% pts

Net margin

10.1%— pts

FCF margin

-24.3%-54.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$392.72B$392.72B$490.34B$522.35B$309.60B$199.31B$230.66B$250.17B$236.02B$176.88B$160.61B$192.72B$219.32B$206.02B$221.01B$186.65B$127.01B$128.97B
Net Income$39.76B$39.76B$240.75B$228.90B$126.34B$51.38B$43.91B$52.31B$52.71B$24.25B$13.91B$28.42B$23.46B$29.44B$59.81B———
EBITDA$143.76B$143.76B$313.44B$292.91B$172.33B$85.42B$79.00B$89.18B$81.37B$59.03B$51.62B$68.44B$64.23B$65.82B$96.06B———
EPS16.9216.92102.4597.4053.7621.8618.6822.2622.4310.325.9212.099.9512.538.78———
Gross Margin20.9%20.9%57.0%54.1%49.2%34.8%32.7%33.3%34.5%30.5%27.1%33.0%27.7%37.1%42.8%———
Operating Margin11.5%11.5%50.1%46.0%41.2%24.5%21.2%22.3%22.4%14.1%10.7%18.5%14.1%25.0%33.2%36.8%23.3%27.2%
Net Margin10.1%10.1%49.1%43.8%40.8%25.8%19.0%20.9%22.3%13.7%8.7%14.7%10.7%14.3%27.1%———
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.230.230.170.060.060.080.100.090.050.020.060.120.250.280.200.140.030.12
Current Ratio4.004.005.512.674.073.856.725.786.046.044.533.161.822.313.07———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-95.52B$-95.52B$76.84B$99.43B$-11.90B$49.55B$14.07B$-1.90B$-19.03B$15.12B$53.28B$47.65B$-15.45B$31.25B$-7.52B$11.33B$492.6M$38.37B
Returns
ROE4.3%4.3%26.8%31.4%21.7%10.5%8.8%11.3%12.5%6.3%3.8%7.9%7.0%9.1%18.9%———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-19.9%-19.9%-6.1%68.7%55.3%-13.6%-7.8%6.0%33.4%10.1%-16.7%-12.1%6.5%-6.8%18.4%47.0%-1.5%—
EPS Growth-83.5%-83.5%5.2%81.2%145.9%17.0%-16.1%-0.8%117.4%74.3%-51.1%21.5%-20.6%42.7%————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

0.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$17.30

Spread vs growth

-84.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

4.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$20.94

Spread vs growth

-87.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$33.72

Spread vs growth

-90.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -51.5%

Total return

-51.5%

Start / end P/E

3.9x → 11.5x

EPS bridge

102.45 → 16.92

Residual

-161.7%

EPS growth-83.5%
Multiple rerating+193.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-161.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.