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NGVC$28.67-2.35%
Fair $28.67+0.0%

NGVC

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Consumer Defensive / Grocery StoresNYSE

$28.67

-0.69 (-2.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $28.67Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $26.5M · quality 58.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 73/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 15Warnings: 0unknown: 15
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · NGVCLocal privado en este navegador · Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$661M

P/E

13.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

10.5x

↑

ROE

21.9%

↑

Gross Margin

29.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.56

↑
52-Week Range$29
$23$49

TradingView lightweight chart

NGVC price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $28.67Periodo +60.5%
Fair value: $28.67

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2011–2025 · 14 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.8%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.33B · net income $46.4M · FCF $23.9M

2011-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.9%— pts

Operating margin

4.7%— pts

Net margin

3.5%— pts

FCF margin

1.8%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Income Statement
Revenue$1.33B$1.33B$1.24B$1.14B$1.09B$1.06B$1.04B$903.6M$849.0M$769.0M$705.5M$624.7M$520.7M$430.7M$336.4M—
Net Income$46.4M$46.4M$33.9M$23.2M$21.4M$20.6M$20.0M$9.4M$12.7M$6.9M$11.5M$16.2M$13.5M$10.6M$7.5M$4.6M
EBITDA$93.8M$93.8M$77.9M$60.6M$58.1M$58.0M$58.9M$45.7M$44.5M$43.6M$45.9M$50.0M$41.5M$32.6M$21.9M$15.1M
EPS2.002.001.471.020.940.910.890.420.560.310.510.720.600.470.300.16
Gross Margin29.9%29.9%29.4%28.7%28.0%27.7%27.3%26.4%26.6%27.6%28.6%29.2%29.1%29.2%29.4%—
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%3.9%3.0%2.9%2.7%2.7%1.9%1.8%1.8%2.9%4.6%4.7%4.4%3.6%—
Net Margin3.5%3.5%2.7%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.0%1.5%0.9%1.6%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.2%—
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.561.561.992.172.520.150.00—————————
Current Ratio1.051.05——————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$23.9M$23.9M$35.1M$26.5M$8.2M$27.5M$39.8M$7.4M$19.2M$-290000.00$-24.9M$4.3M————
Returns
ROE21.9%21.9%19.5%13.6%13.7%14.4%11.6%6.0%8.6%5.1%9.1%14.0%13.6%12.5%10.2%—
Valuation
P/E13.7813.7817.7113.0110.93———————————
EV/EBITDA10.4610.4612.0510.8110.60———————————
P/B3.143.143.451.771.50———————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.2%7.2%8.9%4.7%—1.8%14.7%6.4%10.4%9.0%12.9%20.0%20.9%28.0%——
EPS Growth36.1%36.1%44.1%8.5%—2.2%111.9%-25.0%80.6%-39.2%-29.2%20.0%27.7%56.7%87.5%—
Dividend Yield2.0%2.0%——————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

8.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.54

Spread vs growth

27.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.08

Spread vs growth

27.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$4.96

Spread vs growth

26.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -39.2%

Total return

-39.2%

Start / end P/E

33.2x → 14.3x

EPS bridge

1.47 → 2.00

Residual

-20.5%

EPS growth+36.1%
Multiple rerating-56.8%
Dividend+2.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-20.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.