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v0.1
NIU$2.35+0.00%
Fair $13.78+486.2%

NIU

Niu Technologies

Consumer Cyclical / Auto ManufacturersNasdaqGM

$2.35

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Significantly Undervalued+486.2%Fair Value $13.78Fund rank 22/100 · PassSEC 10/10 yrs|
SA 26/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

$0.21

-55.4% CAGR · yield 9.9%

FCF base 5Y

$0.18

-40.4% base · -33.8% expected

Precio de entrada

$0.07

MOS 28% · confianza 45%

FCF escenarios

modelled · normalized FCF $2.1M · quality 34.7/100

Pass 22/100
Bear 5Y$0.08-48.9%
Base 5Y$0.18-40.4%
Bull 5Y$0.77-20.0%
Return 0/100Downside 0/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 68/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

26/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

100/100

+486.2% upside

5Y CAGR

-33.8%

0/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 10Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 10
ROE is -4.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · NIULocal privado en este navegador · Niu Technologies
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$184M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

-1.7x

↓

ROE

-4.4%

↓

Gross Margin

19.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.71

↑
52-Week Range$2
$2$6
EV/EBITDA vs Sector-1.7x

TradingView lightweight chart

NIU price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.350Periodo -72.8%
Buy zone: $0.070Bear 5Y: $0.080Fair value: $13.78Base 5Y: $0.180Bull 5Y: $0.770

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2016–2025 · 9 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.1%

FCF / Net income

-4.45x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $616.0M · net income $-5.6M · FCF $25.1M

2016-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

19.6%+23.2% pts

Operating margin

-2.0%+61.8% pts

Net margin

-0.9%+64.7% pts

FCF margin

4.1%+41.7% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$616.0M$616.0M$450.5M$373.5M$3.17B$581.3M$374.6M$298.2M$214.9M$769.4M$354.8M
Net Income$-5.6M$-5.6M$-26.5M$-38.3M$-49.5M$35.4M$25.8M$27.3M$-50.8M$-184.7M$-232.7M
EBITDA$54.7M$54.7M$-89.0M$-132.5M$77.2M——————
EPS-0.04-0.04-0.17-0.24-0.320.220.160.18-5.30-7.02—
Gross Margin19.6%19.6%15.2%21.5%21.1%21.9%22.9%23.4%13.4%7.1%-3.6%
Operating Margin-2.0%-2.0%-7.6%-12.0%-2.8%6.8%7.0%9.0%-21.5%-18.4%-63.8%
Net Margin-0.9%-0.9%-5.9%-10.3%-1.6%6.1%6.9%9.2%-23.6%-24.0%-65.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.710.710.530.250.38——————
Current Ratio1.101.10—————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$25.1M$25.1M$-9.2M$2.1M$-257.2M$-233.3M——$-3.5M$56.8M$-133.4M
Returns
ROE-4.4%-4.4%-20.7%-24.9%-26.0%17.9%17.0%24.0%-61.2%-56.8%-109.2%
Valuation
P/E—————14.4119.8117.61———
EV/EBITDA-1.75-1.75——4.73——————
P/B3.913.913.943.232.592.563.294.272.52——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth36.7%36.7%20.6%-88.2%445.1%55.2%25.6%38.8%-72.1%116.8%—
EPS Growth76.5%76.5%29.2%25.0%-245.5%37.5%-11.1%103.4%24.5%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -34.4%

Total return

-34.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.17 → -0.04

Residual

-34.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-34.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

-0.9xmed 9.3x14.0x