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NPK.JO$48100.00-0.82%
Fair $48100.00+0.0%

NPK.JO

Nampak Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersJohannesburg

$48100.00

-400.00 (-0.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $48100.00Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-21.3M · quality 28.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · NPK.JOLocal privado en este navegador · Nampak Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.0B

P/E

3.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

178.3x

↑

ROE

139.9%

↑

Gross Margin

40.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.76

↑
52-Week Range$48100
$42000$57000

TradingView lightweight chart

NPK.JO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $48,100Periodo +2572.2%
Fair value: $48,100

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-14.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

8.4%

FCF / Net income

0.26x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $10.73B · net income $3.47B · FCF $900.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

40.1%+1.0% pts

Operating margin

12.6%+5.5% pts

Net margin

32.3%+33.2% pts

FCF margin

8.4%+9.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$10.73B$10.73B$9.96B$9.88B$16.94B
Net Income$3.47B$3.47B$-372.6M$-4.03B$-146.9M
EBITDA$2.26B$2.26B$2.02B$-944.7M$1.13B
EPS410.10410.10-46.50-1172.95-48.80
Gross Margin40.1%40.1%41.7%36.7%39.2%
Operating Margin12.6%12.6%12.5%0.8%7.2%
Net Margin32.3%32.3%-3.7%-40.8%-0.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.761.765.074.741.76
Current Ratio1.831.83———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$900.2M$900.2M$-21.3M$-176.5M$-154.9M
Returns
ROE139.9%139.9%-31.6%-246.2%-3.2%
Valuation
P/E3.443.44———
EV/EBITDA178.34178.34185.02—89.12
P/B161.19161.19311.8841.9820.22
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.7%7.7%0.8%-41.7%—
EPS Growth981.9%981.9%96.0%-2303.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

118.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4268.07

Spread vs growth

863.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

66.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5164.37

Spread vs growth

916.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

35.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$8317.27

Spread vs growth

946.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.3%

Total return

-3.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-46.50 → 410.10

Residual

-3.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.