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NVAX$10.14-3.47%
Fair $10.14+0.0%

NVAX

Novavax, Inc.

Healthcare / BiotechnologyNasdaqGS

$10.14

-0.36 (-3.47%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.14Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-251.0M · quality 55.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 1unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific biotech pipeline model required: targets are disabled until product, probability, peak-sales and cash-runway data exists. ROE is -3.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · NVAXLocal privado en este navegador · Novavax, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.7B

P/E

3.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.6x

↓

ROE

-344.7%

↓

Gross Margin

93.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

-1.95

↓
52-Week Range$10
$6$12

TradingView lightweight chart

NVAX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.15Periodo -91.2%
Fair value: $10.14

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-22.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.57x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.12B · net income $440.3M · FCF $-251.0M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

93.5%— pts

Operating margin

49.0%— pts

Net margin

39.2%— pts

FCF margin

-22.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$1.12B$1.12B$682.2M$556.4M$1.60B$1.15B$475.6M$18.7M$34.3M$31.2M$15.4M$36.3M$30.7M$20.9M$22.1M$14.7M$343000.00—
Net Income$440.3M$440.3M$-187.5M$-545.1M$-657.9M$-1.74B$-418.3M$-132.7M$-184.7M$-183.8M$-280.0M$-156.9M$-82.9M$-52.0M$-28.5M$-19.4M$-35.7M$-40.3M
EBITDA$492.3M$492.3M$-108.0M$-487.4M$-604.7M$-1.67B$-412.4M$-115.5M$-166.5M$-164.1M$-261.4M$-152.1M$-79.3M$-49.8M$-28.0M$-20.0M$-37.1M$-36.2M
EPS2.582.58-1.23-5.41-8.42-23.44-7.27-5.51——————————
Gross Margin93.5%93.5%70.3%38.2%43.5%—————————————
Operating Margin49.0%49.0%-36.5%-101.8%-40.3%-147.1%-87.6%-646.1%-507.2%-550.8%-1752.8%-433.8%-273.0%-250.7%-134.4%-146.9%-11222.7%—
Net Margin39.2%39.2%-27.5%-98.0%-41.1%-152.1%-87.9%-711.0%-538.8%-589.5%-1823.5%-432.9%-270.5%-248.5%-129.1%-131.8%-10410.5%—
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity-1.95-1.95-0.37-0.32-0.87—————————————
Current Ratio2.482.48————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-251.0M$-251.0M$-101.9M$-772.8M$-508.9M—————————————
Returns
ROE-344.7%-344.7%30.1%76.0%103.8%495.8%-66.7%71.3%110.0%180.6%5048.1%-53.6%-36.1%-25.6%-35.5%-36.0%-60.5%-57.7%
Valuation
P/E3.933.93————————————————
EV/EBITDA3.583.58————————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth64.7%64.7%22.6%-65.2%—141.0%2448.5%-45.6%10.0%103.1%-57.6%18.2%46.6%-5.3%50.3%4182.2%——
EPS Growth309.8%309.8%77.3%35.7%—-222.4%-31.9%———————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-29.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.90

Spread vs growth

339.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-15.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.09

Spread vs growth

325.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-3.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.75

Spread vs growth

313.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +43.5%

Total return

+43.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-1.23 → 2.58

Residual

+43.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+43.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.