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v0.1
NVDA$224.52+6.34%
Fair $135.27-39.7%

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Technology / SemiconductorsNasdaqGS

$224.52

+13.38 (+6.34%)

Modestly Overvalued-39.7%Fair Value $135.27Fund rank 38/100 · PassSEC 19/19 yrs|
SA 73/B
F-Score: 4/9
Significantly Overvalued

FCF base 3Y

$64.50

-34.0% CAGR · yield 6.4%

FCF base 5Y

$89.81

-16.7% base · -15.4% expected

Precio de entrada

$41.67

MOS 18% · confianza 87%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $60.9B · quality 75.0/100

Pass 38/100
Bear 5Y$49.22-26.2%
Base 5Y$89.81-16.7%
Bull 5Y$159.26-6.6%
Return 0/100Downside 6/100Model quality 72/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

73/100

B

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

10/100

-39.7% upside

5Y CAGR

-15.4%

0/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 19Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 19
Estimated downside of 39.7% from current price
Thesis & Journal · NVDALocal privado en este navegador · NVIDIA Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.44T

P/E

43.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

38.1x

↑

ROE

76.3%

↑

Gross Margin

71.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$225
$133$237
EV/EBITDA Historical38.1x

TradingView lightweight chart

NVDA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $224.52Periodo +230115.5%
Buy zone: $41.67Bear 5Y: $49.22Fair value: $135.27Base 5Y: $89.81Bull 5Y: $159.26

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2026 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+24.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

44.8%

FCF / Net income

0.81x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $215.94B · net income $120.07B · FCF $96.68B

2008-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

71.1%+25.5% pts

Operating margin

60.4%+40.0% pts

Net margin

55.6%+36.1% pts

FCF margin

44.8%— pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2026SEC
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$215.94B$215.94B$130.50B$60.92B$26.97B$26.91B$16.68B$10.92B$11.72B$9.71B$6.91B$5.01B$4.68B$4.13B$4.28B$4.00B$3.54B$3.33B$3.42B$4.10B
Net Income$120.07B$120.07B$72.88B$29.76B$4.37B$9.75B$4.33B$2.80B$4.14B$3.05B$1.67B$614.0M$631.0M$440.0M$562.5M$581.1M$253.1M$-68.0M$-30.0M$797.6M
EBITDA$144.55B$144.55B$86.14B$35.58B$5.99B$11.21B$5.63B$3.23B$4.07B$3.41B$2.12B$944.0M$979.0M$735.0M$874.5M$852.5M$442.7M$97.7M$114.3M$969.5M
EPS4.904.902.941.190.173.851.731.136.634.822.571.081.120.740.900.940.43-0.12-0.051.31
Gross Margin71.1%71.1%75.0%72.7%56.9%64.9%62.3%62.0%61.2%59.9%58.8%56.1%55.5%54.9%52.0%51.4%39.8%35.4%34.3%45.6%
Operating Margin60.4%60.4%62.4%54.1%15.7%37.3%27.2%26.1%32.5%33.0%28.0%14.9%16.2%12.0%15.1%16.2%7.2%-3.0%-2.1%20.4%
Net Margin55.6%55.6%55.8%48.8%16.2%36.2%26.0%25.6%35.3%31.4%24.1%12.3%13.5%10.7%13.1%14.5%7.1%-2.0%-0.9%19.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.110.250.550.410.470.160.210.270.340.000.310.300.00—————
Current Ratio3.443.44——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$96.68B$96.68B$60.85B$27.02B$3.81B——————————$770.4M$577.9M$410.2M——
Returns
ROE76.3%76.3%91.9%69.2%19.8%36.6%25.6%22.9%44.3%40.8%28.9%13.7%14.3%9.9%11.7%14.0%8.0%-2.6%-1.3%30.5%
Valuation
P/E43.9443.9473.24180.951266.6555.93124.47190.5632.4844.6783.79199.38192.26290.99239.26229.07500.77——164.37
EV/EBITDA38.0738.0737.4050.6689.81———————————————
P/B33.5633.5667.33124.96244.2620.5131.9943.6214.4118.2224.2527.4227.4428.7627.8832.0139.8444.400.050.05
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth65.5%65.5%114.2%125.9%0.2%61.4%52.7%-6.8%20.6%40.6%37.9%7.0%13.4%-3.5%7.1%12.8%6.5%-2.9%-16.4%—
EPS Growth66.7%66.7%147.1%600.0%-95.6%122.5%53.1%-83.0%37.6%87.5%138.0%-3.6%51.4%-17.8%-4.3%118.6%458.3%-140.0%-103.8%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

59.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$19.92

Spread vs growth

7.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

37.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$24.11

Spread vs growth

29.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$38.82

Spread vs growth

43.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +66.6%

Total return

+66.6%

Start / end P/E

46.0x → 45.8x

EPS bridge

2.94 → 4.90

Residual

-0.2%

EPS growth+66.7%
Multiple rerating-0.3%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

37.4x89.8x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector38.1x
6.5xmed 13.0x57.1x