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v0.1
ORC$6.72-0.81%
Fair $6.72+0.0%

ORC

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

Real Estate / REIT - MortgageNYSE

$6.72

-0.06 (-0.81%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.72Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 26/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF n/d · quality 0.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

26/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 15Warnings: 0unknown: 15
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled.
Thesis & Journal · ORCLocal privado en este navegador · Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.3B

P/E

7.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

11.6%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$7
$7$8

TradingView lightweight chart

ORC price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.725Periodo -90.9%
Fair value: $6.725

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2011–2025 · 14 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+39.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

67.1%

FCF / Net income

0.76x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $179.5M · net income $159.0M · FCF $120.4M

2011-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

88.6%+155.8% pts

FCF margin

67.1%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Income Statement
Revenue$179.5M$179.5M$54.4M$-20.7M$-241.0M$134.7M$116.0M$142.3M$154.6M$146.0M$87.1M$68.8M$31.8M$9.2M$2.7M$1.8M
Net Income$159.0M$159.0M$37.7M$-39.2M$-258.5M$-64.8M$2.1M$24.3M$-44.4M$2.0M$2.0M$1.1M$24.5M$-698000.00$534000.00$-1.2M
EPS1.241.240.57-0.89-6.90-2.670.162.15-4.250.250.400.2512.40-1.152.70-6.05
Net Margin88.6%88.6%69.2%189.5%107.2%-48.1%1.8%17.0%-28.7%1.4%2.3%1.6%77.1%-7.6%19.8%-67.2%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio0.110.11——————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$120.4M$120.4M$67.0M$8.0M$289.4M———————————
Returns
ROE11.6%11.6%5.6%-8.3%-58.9%-8.4%0.5%6.1%-13.2%0.4%0.6%0.4%11.2%-1.6%3.6%-8.6%
Valuation
P/E7.087.0813.91—————————————
P/B0.630.630.780.790.94———————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth229.9%229.9%362.9%91.4%—16.1%-18.5%-7.9%5.9%67.5%26.6%116.4%245.7%241.0%52.3%—
EPS Growth117.5%117.5%164.0%87.1%—-1768.8%-92.6%150.6%-1800.0%-37.5%60.0%-98.0%1178.3%-142.6%144.6%—
Dividend Yield17.7%17.7%——————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-21.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.60

Spread vs growth

139.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-10.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.72

Spread vs growth

127.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.16

Spread vs growth

118.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +17.2%

Total return

+17.2%

Start / end P/E

11.9x → 5.4x

EPS bridge

0.57 → 1.24

Residual

-63.8%

EPS growth+117.5%
Multiple rerating-54.3%
Dividend+17.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-63.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.