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ORCAY.IS$4.86+0.00%
Fair $4.86+0.0%

ORCAY.IS

Orçay Ortaköy Çay Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsIstanbul

$4.86

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.86Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $102.1M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 9/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -22.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ORCAY.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Orçay Ortaköy Çay Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

12.4x

↑

ROE

-22.7%

↓

Gross Margin

22.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.76

↑
52-Week Range$5
$3$11

TradingView lightweight chart

ORCAY.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.810Periodo -29.9%
Fair value: $4.860

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.02x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $661.6M · net income $-161.4M · FCF $3.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.0%+1.6% pts

Operating margin

11.0%-5.9% pts

Net margin

-24.4%-23.3% pts

FCF margin

0.5%+58.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$661.6M$661.6M$579.4M$790.5M$669.1M
Net Income$-161.4M$-161.4M$-134.1M$-45.1M$-7.3M
EBITDA$134.9M$134.9M$109.2M$155.0M$83.2M
EPS——-0.67-0.22-0.04
Gross Margin22.0%22.0%23.0%23.7%20.4%
Operating Margin11.0%11.0%15.7%20.0%16.9%
Net Margin-24.4%-24.4%-23.2%-5.7%-1.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.760.760.970.851.01
Current Ratio0.870.87———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3.1M$3.1M$237.3M$102.1M$-390.6M
Returns
ROE-22.7%-22.7%-25.0%-8.8%-1.9%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA12.3912.3921.367.4112.02
P/B1.641.643.461.451.69
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.2%14.2%-26.7%18.1%—
EPS Growth——-197.4%-526.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -33.8%

Total return

-33.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.67 → n/d

Residual

-33.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-33.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.