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ORI-R.BK$1.71+0.00%
Fair $1.71+0.0%

ORI-R.BK

Origin Property Public Company Limited

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentThailand

$1.71

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.71Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 39.0/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ORI-R.BKLocal privado en este navegador · Origin Property Public Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.2B

P/E

12.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.6x

↑

ROE

3.5%

↓

Gross Margin

31.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.64

↑
52-Week Range$2
$2$3

TradingView lightweight chart

ORI-R.BK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.900Periodo -52.1%
Fair value: $1.710

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-17.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.3%

FCF / Net income

0.26x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.05B · net income $719.9M · FCF $187.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

31.3%-11.9% pts

Operating margin

4.7%-22.5% pts

Net margin

8.9%-17.3% pts

FCF margin

2.3%+32.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.05B$8.05B$10.64B$13.87B$14.40B
Net Income$719.9M$719.9M$1.05B$2.72B$3.77B
EBITDA$2.24B$2.24B$2.92B$4.95B$5.85B
EPS0.290.290.431.111.54
Gross Margin31.3%31.3%37.8%46.3%43.2%
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%9.6%23.4%27.3%
Net Margin8.9%8.9%9.9%19.6%26.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.641.641.871.871.26
Current Ratio1.851.85———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$187.6M$187.6M$2.44B$-8.79B$-4.29B
Returns
ROE3.5%3.5%5.4%14.3%20.8%
Valuation
P/E12.2112.2124.359.427.66
EV/EBITDA16.6416.6420.6412.088.30
P/B0.210.211.321.341.60
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-24.4%-24.4%-23.2%-3.7%—
EPS Growth-31.6%-31.6%-61.3%-28.0%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-19.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.15

Spread vs growth

-11.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-8.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.18

Spread vs growth

-22.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.30

Spread vs growth

-31.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.0%

Total return

-5.0%

Start / end P/E

7.2x → 9.9x

EPS bridge

0.43 → 0.29

Residual

-11.6%

EPS growth-31.6%
Multiple rerating+36.7%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-11.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.