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v0.1
ORLY$86.68-0.23%
Fair $86.68+0.0%

ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsNasdaqGS

$86.68

-0.20 (-0.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $86.68Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 22% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.0B · quality 77.0/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 18Warnings: 1unknown: 18
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -3.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ORLYLocal privado en este navegador · O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$71.8B

P/E

28.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.7x

↑

ROE

-332.5%

↓

Gross Margin

51.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

-11.12

↓
52-Week Range$87
$85$109

TradingView lightweight chart

ORLY price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $86.68Periodo +11994.9%
Fair value: $86.68

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2025 · 17 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

9.0%

FCF / Net income

0.63x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $17.78B · net income $2.54B · FCF $1.59B

2008-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

51.6%+6.1% pts

Operating margin

19.5%+10.1% pts

Net margin

14.3%+9.1% pts

FCF margin

9.0%+10.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Income Statement
Revenue$17.78B$17.78B$16.71B$15.81B$14.41B$13.33B$11.60B$10.15B$9.54B$8.98B$8.59B$7.97B$7.22B$6.65B$6.18B$5.79B$5.40B$4.85B$3.58B
Net Income$2.54B$2.54B$2.39B$2.35B$2.17B$2.16B$1.75B$1.39B$1.32B$1.13B$1.04B$931.2M$778.2M$670.3M$585.7M$507.7M$419.4M$307.5M$186.2M
EBITDA$3.99B$3.99B$3.73B$3.62B$3.31B$3.25B$2.73B$2.19B$2.07B$1.96B$1.92B$1.72B$1.46B$1.29B$1.15B$1.03B$874.2M$685.8M—
EPS2.972.972.712.562.232.071.571.191.070.840.720.610.490.400.320.250.200.150.10
Gross Margin51.6%51.6%51.2%51.3%51.2%52.7%52.4%53.1%52.8%52.6%52.5%52.3%51.4%50.7%50.1%49.0%48.6%48.0%45.5%
Operating Margin19.5%19.5%19.5%20.2%20.5%21.9%20.8%18.9%19.0%19.2%19.8%19.0%17.6%16.6%15.8%15.0%13.2%11.1%9.4%
Net Margin14.3%14.3%14.3%14.8%15.1%16.2%15.1%13.7%13.9%12.6%12.1%11.7%10.8%10.1%9.5%8.8%7.8%6.3%5.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity-11.12-11.12-5.78-4.51-6.17-57.6229.409.799.664.561.160.710.690.710.520.280.110.25—
Current Ratio0.760.76—————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.59B$1.59B$2.03B$2.03B$2.58B$2.76B$2.37B$1.08B$1.22B$937.7M$1.03B$931.5M$760.4M$512.1M$950.8M$790.7M$338.3M$-129.6M$-43.1M
Returns
ROE-332.5%-332.5%-174.1%-134.9%-204.8%-3258.9%1249.3%350.1%374.5%173.6%63.8%47.5%38.6%34.1%27.8%17.8%13.1%11.4%8.2%
Valuation
P/E28.2328.2329.6224.0625.19——————————————
EV/EBITDA20.6920.6921.0417.7018.46——————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.4%6.4%5.7%9.7%—14.8%14.3%6.4%6.2%4.5%7.9%10.4%8.5%7.6%6.8%7.2%11.4%35.5%—
EPS Growth9.6%9.6%5.7%15.0%—32.2%31.6%11.1%27.1%18.1%17.0%24.9%21.7%26.9%28.0%25.8%32.3%50.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.69

Spread vs growth

-27.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$9.31

Spread vs growth

-16.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$14.99

Spread vs growth

-8.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -4.9%

Total return

-4.9%

Start / end P/E

33.6x → 29.2x

EPS bridge

2.71 → 2.97

Residual

-1.3%

EPS growth+9.6%
Multiple rerating-13.2%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.