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v0.1
OTLY$8.78-12.29%
Fair $12.56+43.2%

OTLY

Oatly Group AB

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsNasdaqGS

$8.78

-1.23 (-12.29%)

Modestly Undervalued+43.2%Fair Value $12.56Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapSEC 7/7 yrs|
SA 13/F
F-Score: 5/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-155.6M · quality 31.3/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 35/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

13/100

F

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

93/100

+43.2% upside

5Y CAGR

+16.1%

100/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 7Warnings: 2sec-companyfacts: 7
Debt-to-Equity ratio is 30.19, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -8.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · OTLYLocal privado en este navegador · Oatly Group AB
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$274M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-823.3%

↓

Gross Margin

32.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

30.19

↑
52-Week Range$9
$8$19

TradingView lightweight chart

OTLY price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.775Periodo -97.8%
Fair value: $12.56

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2019–2025 · 6 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.5%

FCF / Net income

0.26x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $862.5M · net income $-152.8M · FCF $-39.0M

2019-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.1%— pts

Operating margin

-7.1%— pts

Net margin

-17.7%— pts

FCF margin

-4.5%— pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$862.5M$862.5M$823.7M$783.3M$722.2M———
Net Income$-152.8M$-152.8M$-201.9M$-416.9M$-392.6M———
EBITDA$-34.6M$-34.6M$-86.1M$-307.1M$-335.2M———
EPS-5.00-5.00-6.80-14.00-13.20———
Gross Margin32.1%32.1%28.7%19.4%11.1%———
Operating Margin-7.1%-7.1%-14.2%-31.0%-49.0%———
Net Margin-17.7%-17.7%-24.5%-53.2%-54.4%———
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity30.1930.194.691.600.19———
Current Ratio0.460.46——————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-39.0M$-39.0M$-155.6M$-234.7M$-475.1M———
Returns
ROE-823.3%-823.3%-192.9%-124.8%-49.6%———
Valuation
P/B14.3714.374.312.101.90———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.7%4.7%5.1%8.5%————
EPS Growth26.5%26.5%51.4%-6.1%————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.9%

Total return

-12.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-6.80 → -5.00

Residual

-12.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.