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v0.1
PGY$15.64+3.44%
Fair $15.64+0.0%

PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

Technology / Software - InfrastructureNasdaqCM

$15.64

+0.52 (+3.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.64Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $24.5M · quality 29.0/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 5Warnings: 0unknown: 5
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · PGYLocal privado en este navegador · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.3B

P/E

14.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.6x

↓

ROE

17.0%

↑

Gross Margin

40.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.79

↑
52-Week Range$16
$10$45

TradingView lightweight chart

PGY price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.64Periodo -87.0%
Fair value: $15.64

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2025 · 4 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+29.7%

FCF CAGR

+51.0%

FCF margin

17.8%

FCF / Net income

2.76x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.26B · net income $81.4M · FCF $224.7M

2021-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

40.6%— pts

Operating margin

17.7%+19.0% pts

Net margin

6.5%+26.9% pts

FCF margin

17.8%+8.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$1.26B$1.26B$1.00B$772.8M$685.4M$445.9M
Net Income$81.4M$81.4M$-401.4M$-128.4M$-302.3M$-91.2M
EBITDA$253.9M$253.9M$67.9M$-44.5M$-308.7M$-5.0M
EPS0.930.93-5.66-2.14-8.28-8.25
Gross Margin40.6%40.6%40.5%34.1%34.2%—
Operating Margin17.7%17.7%3.9%-8.2%-46.0%-1.3%
Net Margin6.5%6.5%-40.0%-16.6%-44.1%-20.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.791.792.090.740.38—
Current Ratio7.307.30————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$224.7M$224.7M$24.5M$-41.8M$-62.4M$43.2M
Returns
ROE17.0%17.0%-122.9%-22.9%-54.6%—
Valuation
P/E13.9613.96————
EV/EBITDA7.577.5718.13———
P/B2.712.712.261.601.30—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth25.6%25.6%30.0%12.8%——
EPS Growth116.4%116.4%-164.5%74.2%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

14.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.39

Spread vs growth

102.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

12.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.68

Spread vs growth

103.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.70

Spread vs growth

105.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -4.9%

Total return

-4.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-5.66 → 0.93

Residual

-4.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.