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PKP.WA$13.45+1.13%
Fair $13.45+0.0%

PKP.WA

Pkp Cargo S.A.

Industrials / RailroadsWarsaw

$13.45

+0.15 (+1.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.45Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 7/9
High DebtDeclining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 27% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.0B · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 59/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.38, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · PKP.WALocal privado en este navegador · Pkp Cargo S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$602M

P/E

14.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.9x

↓

ROE

5.1%

↓

Gross Margin

17.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

3.38

↑
52-Week Range$13
$10$18

TradingView lightweight chart

PKP.WA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.45Periodo -83.4%
Fair value: $13.45

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-11.1%

FCF CAGR

+20.4%

FCF margin

7.5%

FCF / Net income

7.16x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.79B · net income $39.4M · FCF $282.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.1%-3.4% pts

Operating margin

0.2%-6.0% pts

Net margin

1.0%-1.7% pts

FCF margin

7.5%+4.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.79B$3.79B$4.46B$5.49B$5.39B
Net Income$39.4M$39.4M$-2.41B$82.1M$148.0M
EBITDA$578.0M$578.0M$-1.81B$1.12B$1.07B
EPS0.880.88-53.871.833.31
Gross Margin17.1%17.1%9.9%20.6%20.5%
Operating Margin0.2%0.2%-3.0%6.1%6.2%
Net Margin1.0%1.0%-54.1%1.5%2.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.383.383.700.900.73
Current Ratio0.380.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$282.2M$282.2M$1.03B$1.21B$161.5M
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%-323.3%2.6%4.6%
Valuation
P/E14.1614.16—7.764.53
EV/EBITDA4.894.89—2.942.72
P/B0.780.780.930.200.21
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-15.1%-15.1%-18.8%1.9%—
EPS Growth101.6%101.6%-3043.7%-44.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

10.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.19

Spread vs growth

90.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.44

Spread vs growth

91.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.33

Spread vs growth

91.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.0%

Total return

-19.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-53.87 → 0.88

Residual

-19.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.