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POSADASA.MX$30.00+0.00%
Fair $30.00+0.0%

POSADASA.MX

Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V.

Consumer Cyclical / LodgingMexico

$30.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $30.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.9B · quality 63.0/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 84/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · POSADASA.MXLocal privado en este navegador · Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$14.9B

P/E

33.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

↓

ROE

12.1%

↑

Gross Margin

34.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.94

↑
52-Week Range$30
$28$36

TradingView lightweight chart

POSADASA.MX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $30.00Periodo +476.9%
Fair value: $30.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.2%

FCF CAGR

+15.9%

FCF margin

19.5%

FCF / Net income

3.35x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $9.97B · net income $579.9M · FCF $1.94B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

34.2%+3.3% pts

Operating margin

9.6%+1.8% pts

Net margin

5.8%+3.4% pts

FCF margin

19.5%+5.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$9.97B$9.97B$9.31B$9.21B$9.08B
Net Income$579.9M$579.9M$-164.6M$1.01B$217.4M
EBITDA$2.69B$2.69B$1.22B$2.73B$2.08B
EPS1.181.18-0.322.050.44
Gross Margin34.2%34.2%34.5%34.2%30.9%
Operating Margin9.6%9.6%11.4%9.4%7.8%
Net Margin5.8%5.8%-1.8%10.9%2.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.941.942.752.303.54
Current Ratio1.251.25———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.94B$1.94B$2.26B$1.23B$1.25B
Returns
ROE12.1%12.1%-4.2%25.0%7.3%
Valuation
P/E33.3333.33—13.3264.77
EV/EBITDA7.937.9317.117.7510.98
P/B3.103.103.123.364.77
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.0%7.0%1.1%1.4%—
EPS Growth468.8%468.8%-115.6%365.9%—
Dividend Yield1.2%1.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

31.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.66

Spread vs growth

437.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

22.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.22

Spread vs growth

446.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.19

Spread vs growth

452.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.6%

Total return

+7.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.32 → 1.18

Residual

+6.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.