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v0.1
PSX$180.24+2.48%
Fair $180.24+0.0%

PSX

Phillips 66

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingNYSE

$180.24

+4.36 (+2.48%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $180.24Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.7B · quality 67.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 55/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 16Warnings: 1unknown: 16
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · PSXLocal privado en este navegador · Phillips 66
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$72.3B

P/E

17.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.4x

↑

ROE

15.1%

↑

Gross Margin

9.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.68

↑
52-Week Range$180
$111$191

TradingView lightweight chart

PSX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $180.24Periodo +430.1%
Fair value: $180.24

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2010–2025 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.1%

FCF / Net income

0.62x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $132.38B · net income $4.40B · FCF $2.73B

2010-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

9.8%— pts

Operating margin

2.6%— pts

Net margin

3.3%+2.8% pts

FCF margin

2.1%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Income Statement
Revenue$132.38B$132.38B$143.15B$147.40B$169.99B$111.48B$64.13B$107.29B$111.46B$102.35B$84.28B$98.97B$161.21B$171.60B$179.29B$195.93B$146.56B
Net Income$4.40B$4.40B$2.12B$7.01B$11.02B$1.32B$-3.98B$3.08B$5.59B$5.11B$1.55B$4.23B$4.76B$3.73B$4.12B$4.78B$735.0M
EBITDA$9.76B$9.76B$5.99B$12.37B$16.91B————————————
EPS10.7910.794.9915.4823.272.97-9.066.7711.809.852.927.738.336.026.487.521.16
Gross Margin9.8%9.8%7.6%11.8%10.8%————————————
Operating Margin2.6%2.6%1.2%5.4%5.7%————————————
Net Margin3.3%3.3%1.5%4.8%6.5%1.2%-6.2%2.9%5.0%5.0%1.8%4.3%3.0%2.2%2.3%2.4%0.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.680.680.730.630.58———————0.00————
Current Ratio1.131.13———————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.73B$2.73B$2.33B$4.87B$8.93B————————————
Returns
ROE15.1%15.1%7.7%22.9%37.4%6.9%-20.9%12.3%22.7%20.4%6.9%18.3%22.1%17.0%19.9%20.5%—
Valuation
P/E17.8317.8323.268.744.54————————————
EV/EBITDA9.449.4411.246.253.62————————————
P/B2.532.531.792.001.70————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.5%-7.5%-2.9%-13.3%—73.8%-40.2%-3.7%8.9%21.4%-14.8%-38.6%-6.1%-4.3%-8.5%33.7%—
EPS Growth116.2%116.2%-67.8%-33.5%—132.8%-233.8%-42.6%19.8%237.3%-62.2%-7.2%38.4%-7.1%-13.8%548.3%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

14.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$15.99

Spread vs growth

102.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

12.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$19.35

Spread vs growth

103.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$31.17

Spread vs growth

105.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +61.6%

Total return

+61.6%

Start / end P/E

22.7x → 16.7x

EPS bridge

4.99 → 10.79

Residual

-30.9%

EPS growth+116.2%
Multiple rerating-26.5%
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-30.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.