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PZZA$32.68-4.11%
Fair $32.68+0.0%

PZZA

Papa John's International, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsNasdaqGS

$32.68

-1.40 (-4.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $32.68Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $51.6M · quality 71.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 59/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 2unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -6.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · PZZALocal privado en este navegador · Papa John's International, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.1B

P/E

39.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

↑

ROE

-6.9%

↓

Gross Margin

20.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

-2.11

↓
52-Week Range$33
$30$56

TradingView lightweight chart

PZZA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $32.68Periodo +388.7%
Fair value: $32.68

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.7%

FCF CAGR

+3.0%

FCF margin

2.5%

FCF / Net income

1.69x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.05B · net income $30.5M · FCF $51.6M

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.7%— pts

Operating margin

4.1%-0.9% pts

Net margin

1.5%-1.6% pts

FCF margin

2.5%-0.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$2.05B$2.05B$2.06B$2.14B$2.10B$2.07B$1.81B$1.62B$1.66B$1.78B$1.71B$1.64B$1.60B$1.44B$1.34B$1.22B$1.13B$1.08B$1.13B$1.06B
Net Income$30.5M$30.5M$83.5M$82.1M$67.8M$120.0M$57.9M$4.9M$2.5M$102.3M$102.8M$75.7M$73.3M$69.5M$61.7M$54.7M$51.9M$57.5M$36.8M$32.7M
EBITDA$181.4M$181.4M$226.1M$211.2M$161.1M$217.1M$140.0M$71.8M$78.0M$194.7M$205.5M$176.6M$157.6M$141.6M$132.6M$119.7M$119.2M$126.7M$98.3M$84.9M
EPS0.900.902.542.481.890.121.28-0.240.082.832.741.891.751.551.291.080.981.030.650.55
Gross Margin20.7%20.7%20.2%19.6%18.5%———————————————
Operating Margin4.1%4.1%6.9%6.9%5.8%8.1%5.0%1.5%1.9%8.5%9.6%8.3%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.1%7.7%8.8%5.8%5.0%
Net Margin1.5%1.5%4.1%3.8%3.2%5.8%3.2%0.3%0.1%5.7%6.0%4.6%4.6%4.8%4.6%4.5%4.6%5.3%3.3%3.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity-2.11-2.11-2.26-2.10-2.82-2.56-1.16-1.05-1.88-3.67-76.668.742.671.150.490.250.50———
Current Ratio0.840.84——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$51.6M$51.6M$34.1M$116.4M$39.4M$116.1M$150.8M$24.0M$50.4M$82.4M$94.7M$131.5M———$71.7M$61.5M$70.3M$44.0M$30.4M
Returns
ROE-6.9%-6.9%-19.4%-17.9%-23.7%-64.0%-20.5%-1.5%-0.8%-84.0%-2629.0%259.4%85.0%50.5%34.0%26.1%26.1%32.5%28.3%—
Valuation
P/E39.3739.3716.9627.9944.13———————————————
EV/EBITDA10.9110.9110.3815.2823.21———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.3%-0.3%-3.6%1.6%—14.1%12.0%-2.6%-6.8%4.1%4.7%2.5%11.1%7.2%10.2%8.1%4.4%-4.2%5.9%—
EPS Growth-64.6%-64.6%2.4%31.2%—-90.6%633.3%-400.0%-97.2%3.3%45.0%8.0%12.9%20.2%19.4%10.2%-4.9%58.5%19.3%—
Dividend Yield5.4%5.4%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

47.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.90

Spread vs growth

-112.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.51

Spread vs growth

-95.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.65

Spread vs growth

-84.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -24.0%

Total return

-24.0%

Start / end P/E

18.2x → 36.3x

EPS bridge

2.54 → 0.90

Residual

-64.0%

EPS growth-64.6%
Multiple rerating+99.2%
Dividend+5.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-64.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.