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SGY.TO$10.02+6.48%
Fair $10.02+0.0%

SGY.TO

Surge Energy Inc.

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PToronto

$10.02

+0.61 (+6.48%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.02Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $84.6M · quality 79.7/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · SGY.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Surge Energy Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.0B

P/E

143.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

4.6x

↓

ROE

5.6%

↑

Gross Margin

50.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.34

↑
52-Week Range$10
$5$10

TradingView lightweight chart

SGY.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.02Periodo +114.3%
Fair value: $10.02

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.6%

FCF CAGR

+0.0%

FCF margin

18.3%

FCF / Net income

2.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $579.5M · net income $40.3M · FCF $106.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

50.9%-12.4% pts

Operating margin

14.3%-22.2% pts

Net margin

6.9%-24.6% pts

FCF margin

18.3%+3.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$579.5M$579.5M$665.3M$678.2M$734.5M
Net Income$40.3M$40.3M$-53.7M$15.8M$231.7M
EBITDA$266.2M$266.2M$153.9M$256.1M$333.4M
EPS0.400.40-0.530.162.66
Gross Margin50.9%50.9%53.6%53.3%63.3%
Operating Margin14.3%14.3%18.3%16.9%36.5%
Net Margin6.9%6.9%-8.1%2.3%31.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.340.340.310.330.42
Current Ratio0.580.58———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$106.2M$106.2M$83.5M$84.6M$106.2M
Returns
ROE5.6%5.6%-7.3%1.9%27.6%
Valuation
P/E143.14143.14—41.503.29
EV/EBITDA4.644.645.473.723.33
P/B1.391.390.840.790.91
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-12.9%-12.9%-1.9%-7.7%—
EPS Growth175.5%175.5%-431.3%-94.0%—
Dividend Yield5.2%5.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

30.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.89

Spread vs growth

145.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

21.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.08

Spread vs growth

153.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.73

Spread vs growth

159.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +93.5%

Total return

+93.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.53 → 0.40

Residual

+88.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+5.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+88.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.