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v0.1
SPOT$508.06+2.09%
Fair $508.06+0.0%

SPOT

Spotify Technology S.A.

Communication Services / Internet Content & InformationNYSE

$508.06

+10.38 (+2.09%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $508.06Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.3B · quality 61.3/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 51/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · SPOTLocal privado en este navegador · Spotify Technology S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$104.5B

P/E

33.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

44.0x

↑

ROE

26.6%

↑

Gross Margin

32.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.23

↓
52-Week Range$508
$405$785

TradingView lightweight chart

SPOT price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $508.06Periodo +241.0%
Fair value: $508.06

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.6%

FCF CAGR

+415.2%

FCF margin

16.7%

FCF / Net income

1.30x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $17.19B · net income $2.21B · FCF $2.87B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.0%+7.0% pts

Operating margin

12.8%+18.4% pts

Net margin

12.9%+16.5% pts

FCF margin

16.7%+16.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$17.19B$17.19B$15.67B$13.25B$11.73B
Net Income$2.21B$2.21B$1.14B$-532.0M$-430.0M
EBITDA$2.36B$2.36B$1.50B$-309.0M$-158.0M
EPS10.5110.515.50-2.73-2.93
Gross Margin32.0%32.0%30.1%25.6%25.0%
Operating Margin12.8%12.8%8.7%-3.4%-5.6%
Net Margin12.9%12.9%7.3%-4.0%-3.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.230.230.380.670.70
Current Ratio2.062.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.87B$2.87B$2.28B$674.0M$21.0M
Returns
ROE26.6%26.6%20.6%-21.1%-17.9%
Valuation
P/E33.9233.9284.85——
EV/EBITDA43.9843.9862.68——
P/B12.8412.8417.4814.946.81
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.7%9.7%18.3%13.0%—
EPS Growth91.1%91.1%301.5%6.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

62.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$45.08

Spread vs growth

28.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

39.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$54.55

Spread vs growth

52.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$87.85

Spread vs growth

67.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.6%

Total return

-23.6%

Start / end P/E

120.9x → 48.3x

EPS bridge

5.50 → 10.51

Residual

-54.7%

EPS growth+91.1%
Multiple rerating-60.0%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-54.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.