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v0.1
STG$4.52-26.38%
Fair $4.52+0.0%

STG

Sunlands Technology Group

Consumer Defensive / Education & Training ServicesNYSE

$4.52

-1.62 (-26.38%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.52Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $146.2M · quality 63.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 50/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · STGLocal privado en este navegador · Sunlands Technology Group
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$61M

P/E

1.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

-0.8x

↓

ROE

38.7%

↑

Gross Margin

86.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.15

↓
52-Week Range$5
$3$15

TradingView lightweight chart

STG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.140Periodo -95.6%
Fair value: $4.520

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.6%

FCF CAGR

+191.5%

FCF margin

7.2%

FCF / Net income

0.40x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.02B · net income $365.6M · FCF $146.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

86.9%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

22.0%-4.6% pts

Net margin

18.1%-9.6% pts

FCF margin

7.2%+7.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.02B$2.02B$1.99B$2.16B$2.32B
Net Income$365.6M$365.6M$342.1M$640.8M$644.0M
EBITDA$459.1M$459.1M$391.7M$714.4M$705.3M
EPS27.1427.1425.0646.4447.07
Gross Margin86.9%86.9%84.0%87.7%85.0%
Operating Margin22.0%22.0%15.0%26.6%26.6%
Net Margin18.1%18.1%17.2%29.7%27.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.150.150.311.11-1.38
Current Ratio1.211.21———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$146.2M$146.2M$195.1M$134.4M$5.9M
Returns
ROE38.7%38.7%56.9%231.3%-172.0%
Valuation
P/E1.121.120.220.200.20
EV/EBITDA-0.82-0.82-0.63-0.46-0.15
P/B0.060.060.120.46—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.5%1.5%-7.8%-7.0%—
EPS Growth8.3%8.3%-46.0%-1.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-75.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.40

Spread vs growth

83.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-55.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.49

Spread vs growth

63.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-29.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.78

Spread vs growth

38.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.3%

Total return

-19.3%

Start / end P/E

0.2x → 0.2x

EPS bridge

25.06 → 27.14

Residual

-2.1%

EPS growth+8.3%
Multiple rerating-25.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.