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TCL.AX$14.78+0.44%
Fair $14.78+0.0%

TCL.AX

Transurban Group

Industrials / Infrastructure OperationsASX

$14.78

+0.06 (+0.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.78Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $515.0M · quality 56.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 75/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.30, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 1.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · TCL.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Transurban Group
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$46.1B

P/E

98.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

30.1x

↑

ROE

1.5%

↓

Gross Margin

68.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

2.30

↑
52-Week Range$15
$13$15

TradingView lightweight chart

TCL.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.77Periodo +364.5%
Fair value: $14.78

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.4%

FCF CAGR

+18.1%

FCF margin

16.1%

FCF / Net income

4.57x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.77B · net income $133.0M · FCF $608.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

68.0%+4.9% pts

Operating margin

24.8%+7.5% pts

Net margin

3.5%+3.0% pts

FCF margin

16.1%+5.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.77B$3.77B$4.12B$4.16B$3.41B
Net Income$133.0M$133.0M$326.0M$64.0M$19.0M
EBITDA$2.17B$2.17B$2.24B$2.04B$1.65B
EPS0.040.040.110.020.01
Gross Margin68.0%68.0%66.4%63.1%63.2%
Operating Margin24.8%24.8%27.5%24.0%17.2%
Net Margin3.5%3.5%7.9%1.5%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.302.301.791.481.22
Current Ratio0.710.71———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$608.0M$608.0M$515.0M$284.0M$369.0M
Returns
ROE1.5%1.5%3.0%0.5%0.1%
Valuation
P/E98.5098.50116.79666.672232.81
EV/EBITDA30.0830.0824.9929.2235.37
P/B5.005.003.463.422.96
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.5%-8.5%-0.9%22.0%—
EPS Growth-59.4%-59.4%404.8%228.1%—
Dividend Yield4.6%4.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

212.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.31

Spread vs growth

-271.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

105.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.59

Spread vs growth

-165.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

50.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.55

Spread vs growth

-109.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +8.0%

Total return

+8.0%

Start / end P/E

134.8x → 343.6x

EPS bridge

0.11 → 0.04

Residual

-92.1%

EPS growth-59.4%
Multiple rerating+154.9%
Dividend+4.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-92.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.