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Recent

v0.1
TDG$1250.66-0.61%
Fair $928.50-25.8%

TDG

TransDigm Group Incorporated

Industrials / Aerospace & DefenseNYSE

$1250.66

-7.66 (-0.61%)

Modestly Overvalued-25.8%Fair Value $928.50Fund rank 65/100 · PassSEC 18/18 yrs|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

$1041.06

-5.9% CAGR · yield 5.0%

FCF base 5Y

$1426.08

+2.7% base · +4.3% expected

Precio de entrada

$673.25

MOS 17% · confianza 91%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $1.8B · quality 81.7/100

Pass 65/100
Bear 5Y$774.15-9.2%
Base 5Y$1426.08+2.7%
Bull 5Y$2564.43+15.4%
Return 53/100Downside 54/100Model quality 83/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

24/100

-25.8% upside

5Y CAGR

+4.3%

67/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 18Warnings: 0sec-companyfacts: 18
Thesis & Journal · TDGLocal privado en este navegador · TransDigm Group Incorporated
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$70.0B

P/E

37.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

21.9x

↑

ROE

21.4%

↑

Gross Margin

60.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$1251
$1124$1624
EV/EBITDA Historical21.9x

TradingView lightweight chart

TDG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,251Periodo +5089.5%
Buy zone: $673.25Bear 5Y: $774.15Fair value: $928.50Base 5Y: $1,426Bull 5Y: $2,564

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2025 · 17 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+15.9%

FCF CAGR

+14.6%

FCF margin

20.6%

FCF / Net income

0.88x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.83B · net income $2.07B · FCF $1.82B

2008-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

60.1%+6.1% pts

Operating margin

47.2%+5.2% pts

Net margin

23.5%+4.8% pts

FCF margin

20.6%-4.5% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$8.83B$8.83B$7.94B$6.58B$5.43B$4.80B$5.10B$5.22B$3.81B$3.50B$3.17B$2.71B$2.37B$1.92B$1.70B$343.0M$223.1M$761.6M$713.7M
Net Income$2.07B$2.07B$1.71B$1.30B$866.0M$680.0M$699.0M$890.0M$957.0M$596.9M$586.4M$447.2M$306.9M$302.8M$325.0M$67.4M$50.6M$162.9M$133.1M
EBITDA$4.57B$4.57B$3.81B$3.15B$2.46B$1.94B$2.03B$2.15B$1.78B$1.62B$1.39B$1.17B$1.02B$823.0M$768.0M$547.6M———
EPS32.0832.0825.6222.0313.4010.418.96————————————
Gross Margin60.1%60.1%58.8%58.3%57.1%52.4%51.9%53.8%57.1%56.6%54.5%53.6%53.4%54.5%55.6%56.3%59.3%56.4%54.1%
Operating Margin47.2%47.2%44.5%44.4%40.8%35.2%34.3%36.9%43.4%42.3%40.0%39.7%39.1%38.9%41.2%142.0%162.7%44.0%41.9%
Net Margin23.5%23.5%21.6%19.7%16.0%14.2%13.7%17.0%25.1%17.0%18.5%16.5%12.9%15.7%19.1%19.7%22.7%21.4%18.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.020.040.020.094.955.726.953.8815.347.854.6717.042.973.872.991.66—
Current Ratio3.523.52—————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.82B$1.82B$1.88B$1.24B$829.0M$808.0M$1.11B$913.0M$949.0M$717.7M———$434.7M$388.6M$242.4M$184.4M$184.0M$178.8M
Returns
ROE21.4%21.4%27.2%65.4%23.0%23.3%17.6%30.8%52.9%20.2%90.0%43.1%19.7%90.0%26.7%8.3%8.5%19.9%20.4%
Valuation
P/E37.8337.8347.3755.0890.56116.57135.44————————————
EV/EBITDA21.8921.8925.4320.6219.49——————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.2%11.2%20.6%21.3%13.2%-6.0%-2.3%37.1%8.8%10.5%17.2%14.1%23.3%13.2%395.8%53.7%-70.7%6.7%—
EPS Growth25.2%25.2%16.3%64.4%28.7%16.2%—————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growth
terminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

51.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$110.98

Spread vs growth

-26.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

33.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$134.28

Spread vs growth

-7.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$216.26

Spread vs growth

4.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.8%

Total return

-14.8%

Start / end P/E

57.3x → 39.0x

EPS bridge

25.62 → 32.08

Residual

-8.1%

EPS growth+25.2%
Multiple rerating-32.0%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-8.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

19.5x25.4x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector21.9x
5.0xmed 9.9x32.8x