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TLW.L$16.18+0.47%
Fair $16.18+0.0%

TLW.L

Tullow Oil plc

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PLSE

$16.18

+0.08 (+0.47%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16.18Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $534.0M · quality 79.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -2.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · TLW.LLocal privado en este navegador · Tullow Oil plc
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$245M

P/E

4044.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

41.9x

↑

ROE

-2.6%

↓

Gross Margin

29.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

-8.93

↓
52-Week Range$16
$4$22

TradingView lightweight chart

TLW.L price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $16.18Periodo -81.4%
Fair value: $16.18

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-21.8%

FCF CAGR

-43.6%

FCF margin

16.3%

FCF / Net income

21.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $851.2M · net income $6.5M · FCF $138.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.1%-31.8% pts

Operating margin

24.5%-33.4% pts

Net margin

0.8%-2.0% pts

FCF margin

16.3%-27.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$851.2M$851.2M$1.29B$1.63B$1.78B
Net Income$6.5M$6.5M$54.6M$-109.6M$49.1M
EBITDA$628.6M$628.6M$959.1M$860.2M$1.20B
EPS0.000.000.04-0.080.03
Gross Margin29.1%29.1%49.3%46.8%60.9%
Operating Margin24.5%24.5%50.2%44.7%58.0%
Net Margin0.8%0.8%4.2%-6.7%2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity-8.93-8.93-9.93-8.32-7.52
Current Ratio0.520.52———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$138.7M$138.7M$534.0M$583.7M$771.4M
Returns
ROE-2.6%-2.6%-20.0%30.5%-10.7%
Valuation
P/E4044.004044.00656.11—1075.76
EV/EBITDA41.8841.8839.6064.0946.25
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-33.9%-33.9%-21.2%-8.4%—
EPS Growth-88.9%-88.9%147.4%-330.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

610.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.44

Spread vs growth

-699.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

236.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.74

Spread vs growth

-325.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

92.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.80

Spread vs growth

-181.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +2.3%

Total return

+2.3%

Start / end P/E

439.4x → 4044.0x

EPS bridge

0.04 → 0.00

Residual

-729.1%

EPS growth-88.9%
Multiple rerating+820.3%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-729.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.