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TLYS$4.32-0.23%
Fair $9.76+125.8%

TLYS

Tilly's, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Apparel RetailNYSE

$4.32

-0.01 (-0.23%)

Significantly Undervalued+125.8%Fair Value $9.76Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapSEC 16/16 yrs|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 6/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-20.7M · quality 33.3/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 35/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

100/100

+125.8% upside

5Y CAGR

+22.3%

100/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 16Warnings: 3sec-companyfacts: 16
Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.00, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -20.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · TLYSLocal privado en este navegador · Tilly's, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$132M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-20.5%

↓

Gross Margin

29.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

2.00

↑
52-Week Range$4
$1$6

TradingView lightweight chart

TLYS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.320Periodo -74.3%
Fair value: $9.755

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2011–2026 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.1%

FCF / Net income

0.03x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $553.6M · net income $-17.5M · FCF $-589000.0

2011-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

29.7%-1.1% pts

Operating margin

-3.5%-11.0% pts

Net margin

-3.2%-10.5% pts

FCF margin

-0.1%-7.9% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2026SEC
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$553.6M$553.6M$569.5M$623.1M$672.3M———$598.5M$576.9M$569.0M$551.0M$518.3M$495.8M$467.3M$400.6M$332.6M
Net Income$-17.5M$-17.5M$-46.2M$-34.5M$9.7M$64.2M$-1.1M$22.6M$24.9M$14.7M$11.4M$7.5M$14.1M$18.1M$23.9M$34.3M$24.4M
EBITDA$-8.8M$-8.8M$-37.1M$-18.1M$25.3M$104.4M$16.0M$49.4M$54.0M$47.4M$42.6M$40.9M$44.4M$49.1M$48.1M$50.0M$39.2M
EPS-0.58-0.58-1.54-1.160.33—0.290.210.290.230.220.100.250.190.921.681.21
Gross Margin29.7%29.7%26.3%26.6%30.2%———30.2%30.4%29.6%30.4%30.0%30.4%31.6%32.2%30.9%
Operating Margin-3.5%-3.5%-8.8%-5.0%1.7%———5.3%4.2%3.4%3.3%4.5%6.0%6.7%8.7%7.5%
Net Margin-3.2%-3.2%-8.1%-5.5%1.4%———4.2%2.5%2.0%1.4%2.7%3.7%5.1%8.6%7.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.002.001.921.601.37————————————
Current Ratio1.251.25———————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-589000.00$-589000.00$-50.2M$-20.7M$-16.5M$50.0M$30.4M$22.1M$31.8M$19.0M———$1.1M$8.4M$32.4M$26.0M
Returns
ROE-20.5%-20.5%-45.8%-23.8%5.5%36.8%-0.7%14.1%15.3%9.2%6.0%4.4%8.9%12.9%20.4%56.8%39.3%
Valuation
P/E————27.64—13.4118.5213.4116.9117.6838.8915.5620.474.232.323.21
EV/EBITDA————17.58————————————
P/B1.371.371.160.800.670.690.720.720.710.700.590.640.690.780.861.321.26
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.8%-2.8%-8.6%-7.3%————3.7%1.4%3.3%6.3%4.5%6.1%16.6%20.5%—
EPS Growth62.3%62.3%-32.8%-451.5%——38.1%-27.6%26.1%4.5%120.0%-60.0%31.6%-79.3%-45.2%38.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +195.9%

Total return

+195.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-1.54 → -0.58

Residual

+195.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+195.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.