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v0.1
TRK.WA$3.25-3.84%
Fair $3.25+0.0%

TRK.WA

Trakcja S.A.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionWarsaw

$3.25

-0.13 (-3.84%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.25Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 2/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-72.9M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · TRK.WALocal privado en este navegador · Trakcja S.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.5B

P/E

25.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.1x

↑

ROE

9.4%

↑

Gross Margin

5.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.48

↑
52-Week Range$3
$2$5

TradingView lightweight chart

TRK.WA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.255Periodo -91.7%
Fair value: $3.255

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.5%

FCF / Net income

-2.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.10B · net income $35.2M · FCF $-72.9M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

5.9%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

3.0%+3.3% pts

Net margin

1.7%+2.5% pts

FCF margin

-3.5%+0.1% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$2.10B$2.10B$2.07B$1.50B$1.42B
Net Income$35.2M$35.2M$55.7M$-306.4M$-11.4M
EBITDA$97.3M$97.3M$127.2M$-250.0M$56.4M
EPS0.100.100.16-1.79-0.13
Gross Margin5.9%5.9%7.3%-9.5%4.0%
Operating Margin3.0%3.0%4.1%-14.5%-0.4%
Net Margin1.7%1.7%2.7%-20.4%-0.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.480.480.881.661.34
Current Ratio1.051.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-72.9M$-72.9M$452.9M$-135.6M$-50.1M
Returns
ROE9.4%9.4%22.9%-145.8%-3.6%
Valuation
P/E25.0425.0410.53——
EV/EBITDA10.1110.113.36—8.58
P/B3.063.062.451.510.60
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.8%1.8%37.5%5.4%—
EPS Growth-37.5%-37.5%108.9%-1276.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

42.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.29

Spread vs growth

-79.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

28.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.35

Spread vs growth

-65.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.56

Spread vs growth

-56.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +48.0%

Total return

+48.0%

Start / end P/E

13.8x → 32.6x

EPS bridge

0.16 → 0.10

Residual

-51.3%

EPS growth-37.5%
Multiple rerating+136.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-51.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.