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v0.1
UPB$8.08-3.35%
Fair $8.08+0.0%

UPB

Upstream Bio, Inc.

Healthcare / BiotechnologyNasdaqGS

$8.08

-0.28 (-3.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.08Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-59.7M · quality 71.7/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 36/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific biotech pipeline model required: targets are disabled until product, probability, peak-sales and cash-runway data exists. ROE is -42.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · UPBLocal privado en este navegador · Upstream Bio, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$440M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-42.2%

↓

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$8
$7$34

TradingView lightweight chart

UPB price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.080Periodo -63.3%
Fair value: $8.080

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+33.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4675.5%

FCF / Net income

0.93x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.9M · net income $-143.4M · FCF $-133.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

-5618.8%-3646.1% pts

Net margin

-5026.0%-3056.7% pts

FCF margin

-4675.5%-3099.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.9M$2.9M$2.4M$2.4M$1.2M
Net Income$-143.4M$-143.4M$-62.8M$-20.5M$-23.9M
EBITDA$-160.2M$-160.2M$-77.7M$-40.1M$-23.9M
EPS-2.66-2.66-1.17-1.05-0.66
Operating Margin-5618.8%-5618.8%-3281.2%-1685.5%-1972.7%
Net Margin-5026.0%-5026.0%-2650.0%-862.9%-1969.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.00-0.00-0.00
Current Ratio23.1423.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-133.4M$-133.4M$-59.7M$-38.1M$-19.1M
Returns
ROE-42.2%-42.2%-13.4%16.7%22.5%
Valuation
P/B1.281.282.09——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.4%20.4%-0.4%96.4%—
EPS Growth-127.0%-127.0%-11.3%-60.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.5%

Total return

-12.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-1.17 → -2.66

Residual

-12.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.