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VLO$254.14+3.81%
Fair $254.14+0.0%

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingNYSE

$254.14

+9.32 (+3.81%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $254.14Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $5.8B · quality 79.7/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 1unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · VLOLocal privado en este navegador · Valero Energy Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$75.5B

P/E

18.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.7x

↑

ROE

9.9%

↑

Gross Margin

4.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.49

↑
52-Week Range$254
$125$264

TradingView lightweight chart

VLO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $254.14Periodo +5715.0%
Fair value: $254.14

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.1%

FCF / Net income

2.14x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $122.69B · net income $2.35B · FCF $5.03B

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

4.4%— pts

Operating margin

3.5%— pts

Net margin

1.9%— pts

FCF margin

4.1%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$122.69B$122.69B$129.88B$144.77B$176.38B———————————————
Net Income$2.35B$2.35B$2.77B$8.84B$11.53B$930.0M$-1.42B$2.42B$3.12B$4.07B$2.29B$3.99B$3.63B$2.72B$2.08B$2.09B$324.0M$-1.98B$-1.13B$5.23B
EBITDA$6.72B$6.72B$7.03B$15.06B$18.34B$4.54B$772.0M$6.09B$6.64B$5.55B$5.43B$8.20B$7.59B$5.68B$6.62B$5.21B$3.28B$1.44B$2.12B$7.87B
EPS7.577.578.5824.9229.042.27-3.505.847.299.164.947.996.854.973.753.680.52-3.35-1.978.12
Gross Margin4.4%4.4%3.7%8.9%9.5%———————————————
Operating Margin3.5%3.5%2.9%8.2%8.9%———————————————
Net Margin1.9%1.9%2.1%6.1%6.5%———————————————
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.490.490.470.480.540.650.690.410.390.380.400.350.310.340.390.470.550.50——
Current Ratio1.581.58——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$5.03B$5.03B$5.78B$8.32B$10.89B————$4.13B$3.54B$3.99B$2.09B$3.44B$2.34B$1.68B————
Returns
ROE9.9%9.9%11.3%33.5%48.9%5.0%-7.6%11.1%14.4%18.5%11.4%19.4%17.6%14.0%11.6%12.7%2.2%-13.5%-7.2%—
Valuation
P/E18.5618.5614.485.184.39———————————————
EV/EBITDA12.7312.736.673.503.18———————————————
P/B3.313.311.631.732.14———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.5%-5.5%-10.3%-17.9%————————————————
EPS Growth-11.8%-11.8%-65.6%-14.2%—164.9%-159.9%-19.9%-20.4%85.4%-38.2%16.6%37.8%32.5%1.9%606.3%115.5%-69.9%-124.3%—
Dividend Yield2.0%2.0%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

43.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$22.55

Spread vs growth

-55.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

29.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$27.29

Spread vs growth

-41.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$43.94

Spread vs growth

-31.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +99.0%

Total return

+99.0%

Start / end P/E

15.0x → 33.6x

EPS bridge

8.58 → 7.57

Residual

-14.5%

EPS growth-11.8%
Multiple rerating+123.3%
Dividend+2.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.