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v0.1
VLRS$7.80+2.29%
Fair $7.80+0.0%

VLRS

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.

Industrials / AirlinesNYSE

$7.80

+0.17 (+2.29%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.80Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $434.0M · quality 42.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 14.62, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -39.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · VLRSLocal privado en este navegador · Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$896M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

4.7x

↓

ROE

-39.4%

↓

Gross Margin

5.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

14.62

↑
52-Week Range$8
$4$11

TradingView lightweight chart

VLRS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.805Periodo -44.3%
Fair value: $7.805

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.2%

FCF CAGR

+18.7%

FCF margin

14.3%

FCF / Net income

-4.18x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.04B · net income $-103.9M · FCF $434.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

5.7%-2.9% pts

Operating margin

3.3%+2.4% pts

Net margin

-3.4%-0.6% pts

FCF margin

14.3%+5.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.04B$3.04B$3.14B$3.26B$2.85B
Net Income$-103.9M$-103.9M$126.4M$7.8M$-80.2M
EBITDA$850.3M$850.3M$1.07B$721.0M$477.0M
EPS-0.90-0.901.080.07-0.26
Gross Margin5.7%5.7%16.4%15.5%8.6%
Operating Margin3.3%3.3%12.1%6.5%0.8%
Net Margin-3.4%-3.4%4.0%0.2%-2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity14.6214.6210.6114.6112.70
Current Ratio0.670.67———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$434.0M$434.0M$489.1M$238.7M$259.7M
Returns
ROE-39.4%-39.4%34.6%3.2%-34.2%
Valuation
P/E——6.88126.71—
EV/EBITDA4.714.713.605.297.06
P/B3.403.402.374.264.65
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.3%-3.3%-3.6%14.5%—
EPS Growth-183.3%-183.3%1442.9%126.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +68.9%

Total return

+68.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

1.08 → -0.90

Residual

+68.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+68.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.