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Recent

v0.1
WCN$149.51+0.33%
Fair $142.34-4.8%

WCN

Waste Connections, Inc.

Industrials / Waste ManagementNYSE

$149.51

+0.49 (+0.33%)

Fairly Valued-4.8%Fair Value $142.34Fund rank 54/100 · PassSEC 16/16 yrs|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

$114.96

-8.4% CAGR · yield 5.0%

FCF base 5Y

$131.57

-2.5% base · -1.0% expected

Precio de entrada

$62.60

MOS 16% · confianza 92%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $1.2B · quality 76.3/100

Pass 54/100
Bear 5Y$73.80-13.2%
Base 5Y$131.57-2.5%
Bull 5Y$232.48+9.2%
Return 31/100Downside 39/100Model quality 92/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

45/100

-4.8% upside

5Y CAGR

-1.0%

46/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 16Warnings: 0sec-companyfacts: 16
Thesis & Journal · WCNLocal privado en este navegador · Waste Connections, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$38.0B

P/E

37.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.0x

↑

ROE

13.1%

↑

Gross Margin

42.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.11

↑
52-Week Range$150
$149$197
EV/EBITDA Historical16.0x

TradingView lightweight chart

WCN price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $149.51Periodo +5120.0%
Buy zone: $62.60Bear 5Y: $73.80Fair value: $142.34Base 5Y: $131.57Bull 5Y: $232.48

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2010–2025 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.4%

FCF CAGR

+13.0%

FCF margin

13.0%

FCF / Net income

1.15x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $9.47B · net income $1.08B · FCF $1.23B

2010-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

42.4%— pts

Operating margin

18.1%+5.2% pts

Net margin

11.4%+6.2% pts

FCF margin

13.0%-0.7% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$9.47B$9.47B$8.92B$8.02B$7.21B$6.15B$5.45B$5.39B$4.92B$4.63B$3.38B$1.93B$2.01B$2.03B$1.90B$1.84B$1.43B
Net Income$1.08B$1.08B$617.6M$762.8M$835.7M$618.0M$130.7M$566.8M$546.9M$576.8M$246.5M$-95.8M$232.5M$118.0M$94.4M$-196.1M$74.1M
EBITDA$2.98B$2.98B$2.25B$2.26B$2.17B$1.85B$1.16B$1.58B$1.51B$1.26B$916.2M$207.9M$707.2M————
EPS4.174.172.392.953.242.360.502.142.072.181.07-0.521.861.020.81-1.630.76
Gross Margin42.4%42.4%41.8%40.9%39.9%————————————
Operating Margin18.1%18.1%12.0%15.4%17.2%16.9%3.6%15.5%16.9%13.5%13.4%-3.2%22.4%11.5%12.5%-4.8%12.9%
Net Margin11.4%11.4%6.9%9.5%11.6%10.0%2.4%10.5%11.1%12.5%7.3%-5.0%11.6%5.8%5.0%-10.7%5.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.111.111.070.910.970.720.690.630.640.620.641.08———1.020.77
Current Ratio0.690.69———————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.23B$1.23B$1.17B$1.19B$1.11B$953.9M$811.5M$906.1M$865.1M$708.0M—$379.1M$216.9M$242.5M$156.4M$283.4M$196.2M
Returns
ROE13.1%13.1%7.9%9.9%11.8%8.8%1.9%8.2%8.5%9.2%4.4%-4.8%18.9%9.1%7.4%-15.2%4.5%
Valuation
P/E37.3537.3565.1852.8048.0866.00311.5472.7975.2571.45145.58—83.75152.72192.31—204.96
EV/EBITDA15.9715.9723.3219.7919.02————————————
P/B4.874.875.135.235.655.835.995.946.386.576.3714.5315.8213.9114.2214.5410.17
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.1%6.1%11.2%11.2%17.2%13.0%1.1%9.5%6.3%37.2%75.3%-4.2%-0.8%6.8%3.1%28.7%—
EPS Growth74.5%74.5%-19.0%-9.0%37.3%372.0%-76.6%3.4%-5.0%103.7%305.8%-128.0%82.4%25.9%149.7%-314.5%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growth
terminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

47.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$13.27

Spread vs growth

27.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

30.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$16.05

Spread vs growth

43.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$25.85

Spread vs growth

54.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.2%

Total return

-23.2%

Start / end P/E

82.5x → 35.9x

EPS bridge

2.39 → 4.17

Residual

-42.1%

EPS growth+74.5%
Multiple rerating-56.5%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-42.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

16.0x
23.3x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector16.0x
4.9xmed 9.9x24.0x