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Recent

v0.1
XPOF$5.57-1.54%
Fair $15.37+175.8%

XPOF

Xponential Fitness, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / LeisureNYSE

$5.57

-0.09 (-1.54%)

Significantly Undervalued+175.8%Fair Value $15.37Fund rank 51/100 · PassSEC 7/7 yrs|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

$6.33

+4.3% CAGR · yield 7.6%

FCF base 5Y

$6.14

+2.0% base · +4.4% expected

Precio de entrada

$2.80

MOS 20% · confianza 75%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $24.7M · quality 41.3/100

Pass 51/100
Bear 5Y$3.16-10.7%
Base 5Y$6.14+2.0%
Bull 5Y$12.24+17.0%
Return 54/100Downside 48/100Model quality 45/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

100/100

+175.8% upside

5Y CAGR

+4.4%

68/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 7Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 7
ROE is -14.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · XPOFLocal privado en este navegador · Xponential Fitness, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$274M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

77.5x

↑

ROE

-14.4%

↓

Gross Margin

66.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.88

↑
52-Week Range$6
$4$11
EV/EBITDA Historical77.5x

TradingView lightweight chart

XPOF price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.573Periodo -54.5%
Buy zone: $2.800Bear 5Y: $3.160Fair value: $15.37Base 5Y: $6.140Bull 5Y: $12.24

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2019–2025 · 6 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.64x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $314.9M · net income $-38.7M · FCF $24.7M

2019-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

66.6%— pts

Operating margin

6.3%+22.6% pts

Net margin

-12.3%+16.5% pts

FCF margin

7.9%+12.3% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$314.9M$314.9M$320.3M$317.9M$243.2M$155.1M$106.6M$129.1M
Net Income$-38.7M$-38.7M$-67.7M$-4.0M$1.2M$-18.8M$-13.6M$-37.1M
EBITDA$8.9M$8.9M$-35.1M$50.2M$29.9M$-20.6M$15.4M$-14.7M
EPS-1.47-1.47-2.27-0.52-0.88-2.85——
Gross Margin66.6%66.6%66.3%68.9%66.2%———
Operating Margin6.3%6.3%-16.7%11.0%5.5%-19.9%7.3%-16.3%
Net Margin-12.3%-12.3%-21.1%-1.3%0.5%-12.1%-12.8%-28.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.881.881.602.490.880.2038.28—
Current Ratio0.760.76——————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$24.7M$24.7M$7.0M$25.3M$43.1M$10.8M$-2.6M$-5.7M
Returns
ROE-14.4%-14.4%-31.2%-3.1%0.8%-2.9%-287.2%-139.2%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA77.5377.53—16.5525.50———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.7%-1.7%0.8%30.7%56.8%45.5%-17.5%—
EPS Growth35.2%35.2%-336.5%40.9%69.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -39.6%

Total return

-39.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-2.27 → -1.47

Residual

-39.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-39.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

16.5x
77.5x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector77.5x
4.6xmed 9.1x116.3x