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000637.SZ$4.28-3.82%
Fair $4.28+0.0%

000637.SZ

Maoming Petro-Chemical Shihua Co., Ltd

Basic Materials / ChemicalsShenzhen

$4.28

-0.17 (-3.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.28Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 10/F
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-19.2M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

10/100

F

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -28.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000637.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Maoming Petro-Chemical Shihua Co., Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

268.1x

↑

ROE

-28.1%

↓

Gross Margin

1.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.94

↑
52-Week Range$4
$4$6

TradingView lightweight chart

000637.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.280Periodo +101.6%
Fair value: $4.280

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-20.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.6%

FCF / Net income

0.14x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.11B · net income $-141.7M · FCF $-19.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

1.6%-1.9% pts

Operating margin

-4.3%-4.5% pts

Net margin

-4.6%-2.4% pts

FCF margin

-0.6%-5.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.11B$3.11B$3.75B$4.55B$6.06B
Net Income$-141.7M$-141.7M$-83.4M$-127.8M$-129.6M
EBITDA$11.3M$11.3M$125.3M$185.7M$139.2M
EPS-0.27-0.27-0.16-0.25-0.25
Gross Margin1.6%1.6%3.8%4.9%3.5%
Operating Margin-4.3%-4.3%-3.2%-1.0%0.1%
Net Margin-4.6%-4.6%-2.2%-2.8%-2.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.941.941.681.381.60
Current Ratio0.590.59———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-19.2M$-19.2M$-70.7M$225.5M$266.1M
Returns
ROE-28.1%-28.1%-12.9%-17.6%-14.7%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA268.11268.1121.4213.7831.47
P/B4.454.452.802.323.55
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-17.2%-17.2%-17.4%-24.9%—
EPS Growth-68.8%-68.8%36.0%0.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +12.9%

Total return

+12.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.16 → -0.27

Residual

+12.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+12.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.