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002160.SZ$4.63+0.65%
Fair $4.63+0.0%

002160.SZ

Jiangsu Alcha Aluminium Group Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / AluminumShenzhen

$4.63

+0.03 (+0.65%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.63Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-482.9M · quality 53.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 1.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002160.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Jiangsu Alcha Aluminium Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.8B

P/E

66.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

19.8x

↑

ROE

1.9%

↑

Gross Margin

11.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.86

↑
52-Week Range$5
$4$7

TradingView lightweight chart

002160.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.630Periodo -72.7%
Fair value: $4.630

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.7%

FCF / Net income

-6.94x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.47B · net income $69.5M · FCF $-482.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.4%+1.7% pts

Operating margin

3.4%+3.1% pts

Net margin

0.8%+6.4% pts

FCF margin

-5.7%-1.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.47B$8.47B$7.85B$6.87B$6.78B
Net Income$69.5M$69.5M$65.0M$15.1M$-375.4M
EBITDA$372.6M$372.6M$375.8M$277.7M$-112.2M
EPS0.070.070.060.01-0.47
Gross Margin11.4%11.4%12.6%11.0%9.7%
Operating Margin3.4%3.4%4.1%2.3%0.3%
Net Margin0.8%0.8%0.8%0.2%-5.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.860.860.780.710.80
Current Ratio1.911.91———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-482.9M$-482.9M$-116.4M$-531.3M$-320.9M
Returns
ROE1.9%1.9%1.8%0.4%-10.5%
Valuation
P/E66.1466.1456.60280.14—
EV/EBITDA19.7819.7815.6822.37—
P/B1.271.271.001.170.89
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.9%7.9%14.2%1.3%—
EPS Growth7.0%7.0%330.8%103.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

82.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.41

Spread vs growth

-75.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

49.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.50

Spread vs growth

-42.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

28.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.80

Spread vs growth

-21.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +18.1%

Total return

+18.1%

Start / end P/E

62.3x → 68.8x

EPS bridge

0.06 → 0.07

Residual

+0.7%

EPS growth+7.0%
Multiple rerating+10.4%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.