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002165.SZ$6.98+2.35%
Fair $6.98+0.0%

002165.SZ

Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd.

Basic Materials / ChemicalsShenzhen

$6.98

+0.16 (+2.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.98Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 22/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $80.1M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

22/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 0.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002165.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

295.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

37.3x

↑

ROE

0.9%

↑

Gross Margin

14.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.27

↑
52-Week Range$7
$7$15

TradingView lightweight chart

002165.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.980Periodo -12.1%
Fair value: $6.980

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.5%

FCF CAGR

-43.3%

FCF margin

2.9%

FCF / Net income

4.62x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.79B · net income $17.3M · FCF $80.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.3%+1.3% pts

Operating margin

2.2%+3.9% pts

Net margin

0.6%+3.7% pts

FCF margin

2.9%-14.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.79B$2.79B$2.73B$2.65B$2.52B
Net Income$17.3M$17.3M$58.5M$38.3M$-78.3M
EBITDA$181.1M$181.1M$217.0M$241.8M$153.2M
EPS0.020.020.080.05-0.11
Gross Margin14.3%14.3%14.9%19.4%12.9%
Operating Margin2.2%2.2%2.3%6.0%-1.7%
Net Margin0.6%0.6%2.1%1.4%-3.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.271.271.151.111.43
Current Ratio1.141.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$80.1M$80.1M$103.6M$-99.1M$438.5M
Returns
ROE0.9%0.9%2.9%1.9%-3.8%
Valuation
P/E295.76295.7650.5082.73—
EV/EBITDA37.2637.2621.8419.4328.02
P/B2.532.531.451.551.51
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.4%2.4%3.0%5.1%—
EPS Growth-70.4%-70.4%52.8%148.9%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

197.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.62

Spread vs growth

-267.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

99.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.75

Spread vs growth

-170.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

48.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.21

Spread vs growth

-118.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -41.6%

Total return

-41.6%

Start / end P/E

152.8x → 295.8x

EPS bridge

0.08 → 0.02

Residual

-65.9%

EPS growth-70.4%
Multiple rerating+93.6%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-65.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.