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002233.SZ$8.21-1.79%
Fair $8.21+0.0%

002233.SZ

Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Building MaterialsShenzhen

$8.21

-0.15 (-1.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.21Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $435.0M · quality 67.7/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 52/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002233.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.6B

P/E

15.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.6x

↓

ROE

5.3%

↑

Gross Margin

24.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$8
$7$10

TradingView lightweight chart

002233.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.210Periodo +63.7%
Fair value: $8.210

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-12.0%

FCF CAGR

+76.1%

FCF margin

10.6%

FCF / Net income

0.69x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.11B · net income $634.0M · FCF $435.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.5%+7.5% pts

Operating margin

10.7%+3.2% pts

Net margin

15.4%+11.0% pts

FCF margin

10.6%+9.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.11B$4.11B$4.28B$5.53B$6.03B
Net Income$634.0M$634.0M$537.9M$741.5M$266.2M
EBITDA$1.26B$1.26B$1.15B$1.42B$823.8M
EPS0.540.540.460.640.23
Gross Margin24.5%24.5%22.1%26.3%17.0%
Operating Margin10.7%10.7%8.9%15.1%7.4%
Net Margin15.4%15.4%12.6%13.4%4.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.00—
Current Ratio8.148.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$435.0M$435.0M$327.3M$739.4M$79.7M
Returns
ROE5.3%5.3%4.5%6.2%2.4%
Valuation
P/E15.4915.4916.2011.1231.52
EV/EBITDA6.656.656.234.768.67
P/B0.800.800.730.690.74
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.0%-4.0%-22.7%-8.3%—
EPS Growth17.4%17.4%-28.1%178.3%—
Dividend Yield5.9%5.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

10.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.73

Spread vs growth

6.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

7.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.42

Spread vs growth

7.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +14.3%

Total return

+14.3%

Start / end P/E

16.5x → 15.2x

EPS bridge

0.46 → 0.54

Residual

-1.3%

EPS growth+17.4%
Multiple rerating-7.6%
Dividend+5.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.