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002521.SZ$7.65-0.39%
Fair $7.65+0.0%

002521.SZ

Qifeng New Material Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsShenzhen

$7.65

-0.03 (-0.39%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.65Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $225.7M · quality 47.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 3.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002521.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Qifeng New Material Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

23.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.5x

↑

ROE

3.9%

↑

Gross Margin

12.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$8
$8$10

TradingView lightweight chart

002521.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.650Periodo -50.4%
Fair value: $7.650

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

6.7%

FCF / Net income

1.46x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.36B · net income $154.8M · FCF $225.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.0%+4.1% pts

Operating margin

5.4%+4.7% pts

Net margin

4.6%+4.3% pts

FCF margin

6.7%+22.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.36B$3.36B$3.39B$3.66B$3.12B
Net Income$154.8M$154.8M$112.3M$236.8M$8.5M
EBITDA$385.3M$385.3M$310.0M$470.3M$166.9M
EPS0.280.280.220.480.02
Gross Margin12.0%12.0%10.2%14.0%7.9%
Operating Margin5.4%5.4%4.3%7.9%0.8%
Net Margin4.6%4.6%3.3%6.5%0.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.150.150.17
Current Ratio2.332.33———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$225.7M$225.7M$-99.1M$329.8M$-485.9M
Returns
ROE3.9%3.9%2.8%6.3%0.2%
Valuation
P/E23.9123.9142.3617.10272.00
EV/EBITDA11.4811.4814.678.7914.89
P/B1.071.071.181.090.65
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.0%-1.0%-7.4%17.4%—
EPS Growth27.3%27.3%-54.2%2300.0%—
Dividend Yield3.5%3.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

34.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

-7.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

24.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.82

Spread vs growth

3.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

10.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -13.9%

Total return

-13.9%

Start / end P/E

42.1x → 27.3x

EPS bridge

0.22 → 0.28

Residual

-9.6%

EPS growth+27.3%
Multiple rerating-35.2%
Dividend+3.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-9.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.