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002538.SZ$6.32+1.61%
Fair $6.32+0.0%

002538.SZ

Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry LTD. ,company

Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsShenzhen

$6.32

+0.10 (+1.61%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.32Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 27/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-68.8M · quality 34.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

27/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 3.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002538.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry LTD. ,company
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.4B

P/E

27.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.8x

↑

ROE

3.2%

↑

Gross Margin

13.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$6
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

002538.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.320Periodo +5.6%
Fair value: $6.320

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.5%

FCF CAGR

-37.4%

FCF margin

4.8%

FCF / Net income

1.36x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.66B · net income $165.1M · FCF $225.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.3%-9.1% pts

Operating margin

4.8%-7.8% pts

Net margin

3.5%-7.4% pts

FCF margin

4.8%-14.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.66B$4.66B$4.28B$3.91B$4.88B
Net Income$165.1M$165.1M$311.9M$131.2M$534.8M
EBITDA$398.1M$398.1M$561.8M$382.4M$887.7M
EPS0.190.190.370.150.63
Gross Margin13.3%13.3%19.2%16.3%22.4%
Operating Margin4.8%4.8%9.1%4.3%12.6%
Net Margin3.5%3.5%7.3%3.4%11.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity——0.010.020.06
Current Ratio2.232.23———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$225.3M$225.3M$-68.8M$-122.9M$918.8M
Returns
ROE3.2%3.2%6.0%2.6%10.4%
Valuation
P/E27.4827.4814.6739.6312.86
EV/EBITDA12.7612.767.8013.436.95
P/B1.031.030.891.031.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.9%8.9%9.4%-19.9%—
EPS Growth-47.1%-47.1%137.8%-75.5%—
Dividend Yield5.7%5.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

42.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.56

Spread vs growth

-89.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

28.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

-75.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.09

Spread vs growth

-66.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +29.9%

Total return

+29.9%

Start / end P/E

13.9x → 32.7x

EPS bridge

0.37 → 0.19

Residual

-63.4%

EPS growth-47.1%
Multiple rerating+134.6%
Dividend+5.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-63.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.