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002578.SZ$4.22+2.68%
Fair $4.22+0.0%

002578.SZ

Fujian Minfa Aluminium Inc.

Basic Materials / AluminumShenzhen

$4.22

+0.11 (+2.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.22Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 0/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-125.7M · quality 40.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

0/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -2.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002578.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Fujian Minfa Aluminium Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.0B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

123.3x

↑

ROE

-2.0%

↓

Gross Margin

4.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.49

↑
52-Week Range$4
$3$5

TradingView lightweight chart

002578.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.220Periodo +14.7%
Fair value: $4.220

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-12.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-14.2%

FCF / Net income

9.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.90B · net income $-29.7M · FCF $-269.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

4.9%-2.2% pts

Operating margin

-1.4%-3.9% pts

Net margin

-1.6%-3.4% pts

FCF margin

-14.2%-11.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.90B$1.90B$2.23B$2.82B$2.79B
Net Income$-29.7M$-29.7M$20.8M$26.9M$49.9M
EBITDA$37.4M$37.4M$114.8M$125.3M$170.7M
EPS-0.03-0.030.020.030.05
Gross Margin4.9%4.9%6.1%5.9%7.1%
Operating Margin-1.4%-1.4%0.5%1.3%2.5%
Net Margin-1.6%-1.6%0.9%1.0%1.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.490.490.380.490.38
Current Ratio2.212.21———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-269.6M$-269.6M$33.4M$-125.7M$-89.5M
Returns
ROE-2.0%-2.0%1.4%1.7%3.3%
Valuation
P/E——144.00134.3387.60
EV/EBITDA123.33123.3328.3530.5026.31
P/B2.792.791.962.342.88
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.9%-14.9%-21.1%1.2%—
EPS Growth-250.0%-250.0%-33.3%-40.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +31.9%

Total return

+31.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.02 → -0.03

Residual

+31.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+31.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.