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002783.SZ$8.54+3.64%
Fair $8.54+0.0%

002783.SZ

Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShenzhen

$8.54

+0.30 (+3.64%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.54Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $193.1M · quality 44.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002783.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

35.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

6.9x

↓

ROE

5.4%

↑

Gross Margin

30.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.87

↑
52-Week Range$9
$8$12

TradingView lightweight chart

002783.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.240Periodo -20.2%
Fair value: $8.540

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.3%

FCF CAGR

+136.7%

FCF margin

10.6%

FCF / Net income

2.63x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.54B · net income $142.4M · FCF $374.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.3%+6.3% pts

Operating margin

12.5%+2.1% pts

Net margin

4.0%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

10.6%+9.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.54B$3.54B$3.69B$3.78B$3.41B
Net Income$142.4M$142.4M$148.2M$175.4M$133.3M
EBITDA$797.6M$797.6M$750.7M$776.1M$614.3M
EPS0.290.290.320.450.35
Gross Margin30.3%30.3%29.3%27.3%23.9%
Operating Margin12.5%12.5%12.6%13.2%10.5%
Net Margin4.0%4.0%4.0%4.6%3.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.870.870.811.511.91
Current Ratio0.900.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$374.1M$374.1M$193.1M$4.6M$28.2M
Returns
ROE5.4%5.4%5.8%11.2%9.3%
Valuation
P/E35.5835.5823.6621.8025.71
EV/EBITDA6.876.876.537.318.42
P/B1.591.591.382.432.39
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.9%-3.9%-2.5%10.9%—
EPS Growth-9.4%-9.4%-28.9%28.6%—
Dividend Yield1.2%1.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.76

Spread vs growth

-47.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.92

Spread vs growth

-35.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.48

Spread vs growth

-27.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +3.0%

Total return

+3.0%

Start / end P/E

26.2x → 29.4x

EPS bridge

0.32 → 0.29

Residual

-1.2%

EPS growth-9.4%
Multiple rerating+12.3%
Dividend+1.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.