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002809.SZ$9.19+3.72%
Fair $9.19+0.0%

002809.SZ

Guangdong Redwall New Materials Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShenzhen

$9.19

+0.33 (+3.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.19Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-21.2M · quality 42.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is -2.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002809.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong Redwall New Materials Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

99.6x

↑

ROE

-2.4%

↓

Gross Margin

16.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.45

↑
52-Week Range$9
$9$18

TradingView lightweight chart

002809.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.190Periodo -27.5%
Fair value: $9.190

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.8%

FCF / Net income

0.55x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $768.9M · net income $-38.6M · FCF $-21.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.5%-11.3% pts

Operating margin

-2.3%-10.6% pts

Net margin

-5.0%-14.6% pts

FCF margin

-2.8%-2.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$768.9M$768.9M$675.4M$760.8M$938.4M
Net Income$-38.6M$-38.6M$48.8M$85.5M$89.9M
EBITDA$26.8M$26.8M$90.0M$133.0M$148.6M
EPS-0.18-0.180.200.400.43
Gross Margin16.5%16.5%29.2%32.9%27.9%
Operating Margin-2.3%-2.3%9.3%12.0%8.3%
Net Margin-5.0%-5.0%7.2%11.2%9.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.450.450.370.330.08
Current Ratio5.205.20———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-21.2M$-21.2M$18.1M$-179.7M$55528.09
Returns
ROE-2.4%-2.4%2.9%5.2%5.9%
Valuation
P/E——37.3527.5022.72
EV/EBITDA99.6199.6123.8117.2712.54
P/B1.401.401.091.421.35
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.8%13.8%-11.2%-18.9%—
EPS Growth-190.0%-190.0%-50.0%-7.0%—
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -43.0%

Total return

-43.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.20 → -0.18

Residual

-46.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-46.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.