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002824.SZ$25.57-3.40%
Fair $25.57+0.0%

002824.SZ

Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / AluminumShenzhen

$25.57

-0.90 (-3.40%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $25.57Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-61.0M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 002824.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.0B

P/E

45.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

23.8x

↑

ROE

6.7%

↑

Gross Margin

14.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.52

↑
52-Week Range$26
$15$32

TradingView lightweight chart

002824.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $25.57Periodo +246.0%
Fair value: $25.57

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+10.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.01B · net income $154.9M · FCF $-61.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.8%-4.4% pts

Operating margin

5.2%-4.0% pts

Net margin

3.9%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

-1.5%+5.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.01B$4.01B$3.33B$2.91B$3.00B
Net Income$154.9M$154.9M$80.5M$141.8M$204.6M
EBITDA$342.9M$342.9M$241.4M$277.8M$338.8M
EPS0.530.530.290.510.75
Gross Margin14.8%14.8%12.8%16.6%19.1%
Operating Margin5.2%5.2%4.0%6.3%9.2%
Net Margin3.9%3.9%2.4%4.9%6.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.520.520.690.630.35
Current Ratio1.931.93———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-61.0M$-61.0M$110.9M$-401.0M$-202.0M
Returns
ROE6.7%6.7%4.7%8.5%13.0%
Valuation
P/E45.6645.6651.3137.6930.15
EV/EBITDA23.8123.8120.7122.1319.21
P/B3.243.242.423.193.93
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.3%20.3%14.7%-3.1%—
EPS Growth82.8%82.8%-43.1%-32.0%—
Dividend Yield0.7%0.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

62.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.27

Spread vs growth

20.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

39.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.75

Spread vs growth

43.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.42

Spread vs growth

59.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +61.1%

Total return

+61.1%

Start / end P/E

55.0x → 48.2x

EPS bridge

0.29 → 0.53

Residual

-10.1%

EPS growth+82.8%
Multiple rerating-12.2%
Dividend+0.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.