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002827.SZ$27.89-1.97%
Fair $27.89+0.0%

002827.SZ

Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd.

Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsShenzhen

$27.89

-0.56 (-1.97%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $27.89Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-2.8M · quality 34.3/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 002827.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.7B

P/E

40.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

23.0x

↑

ROE

18.6%

↑

Gross Margin

30.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.99

↑
52-Week Range$28
$27$62

TradingView lightweight chart

002827.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $28.45Periodo +227.3%
Fair value: $27.89

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+17.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.0%

FCF / Net income

0.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.83B · net income $198.0M · FCF $127.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.3%+2.1% pts

Operating margin

15.3%+5.0% pts

Net margin

10.8%+6.1% pts

FCF margin

7.0%+15.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.83B$1.83B$1.69B$1.55B$1.13B
Net Income$198.0M$198.0M$148.2M$97.8M$53.4M
EBITDA$350.7M$350.7M$288.1M$228.6M$158.1M
EPS0.720.720.540.350.19
Gross Margin30.3%30.3%30.4%31.1%28.2%
Operating Margin15.3%15.3%14.7%13.0%10.2%
Net Margin10.8%10.8%8.8%6.3%4.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.990.991.091.330.91
Current Ratio1.781.78———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$127.2M$127.2M$-29.8M$-2.8M$-92.4M
Returns
ROE18.6%18.6%16.0%11.9%6.9%
Valuation
P/E40.4240.4244.8346.9156.84
EV/EBITDA23.0223.0224.7121.6220.99
P/B7.197.197.175.593.94
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.0%8.0%9.0%36.9%—
EPS Growth33.3%33.3%54.3%84.2%—
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

50.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.47

Spread vs growth

-17.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

33.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.99

Spread vs growth

0.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.82

Spread vs growth

12.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.5%

Total return

-1.5%

Start / end P/E

52.9x → 38.7x

EPS bridge

0.54 → 0.72

Residual

-8.9%

EPS growth+33.3%
Multiple rerating-26.7%
Dividend+0.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-8.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.