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1600.HK$2.87+1.77%
Fair $2.87+0.0%

1600.HK

Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited

Utilities / Utilities - Regulated GasHKSE

$2.87

+0.05 (+1.77%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.87Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $702.0M · quality 70.0/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 80/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 0.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1600.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.7B

P/E

57.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.8x

↑

ROE

0.7%

↓

Gross Margin

14.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.18

↑
52-Week Range$3
$3$5

TradingView lightweight chart

1600.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.870Periodo +33.5%
Fair value: $2.870

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.7%

FCF CAGR

+35.5%

FCF margin

9.3%

FCF / Net income

19.14x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.94B · net income $38.6M · FCF $739.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.0%-4.4% pts

Operating margin

9.6%-4.2% pts

Net margin

0.5%-5.4% pts

FCF margin

9.3%+5.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.94B$7.94B$7.78B$7.73B$7.54B
Net Income$38.6M$38.6M$301.0M$479.6M$444.6M
EBITDA$858.0M$858.0M$1.27B$1.46B$1.33B
EPS0.040.040.310.490.45
Gross Margin14.0%14.0%17.2%18.8%18.5%
Operating Margin9.6%9.6%12.2%14.0%13.8%
Net Margin0.5%0.5%3.9%6.2%5.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.181.181.181.171.31
Current Ratio1.511.51———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$739.4M$739.4M$614.0M$702.0M$297.5M
Returns
ROE0.7%0.7%5.1%8.3%8.1%
Valuation
P/E57.4057.4011.458.459.00
EV/EBITDA9.839.837.376.747.38
P/B0.480.480.580.690.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.0%2.0%0.7%2.4%—
EPS Growth-87.1%-87.1%-36.7%8.9%—
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

85.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.25

Spread vs growth

-172.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

50.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.31

Spread vs growth

-137.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

28.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.50

Spread vs growth

-115.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +12.8%

Total return

+12.8%

Start / end P/E

8.5x → 71.7x

EPS bridge

0.31 → 0.04

Residual

-646.7%

EPS growth-87.1%
Multiple rerating+742.5%
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-646.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.