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1811.HK$2.83+1.80%
Fair $2.83+0.0%

1811.HK

CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.

Utilities / Utilities - Independent Power ProducersHKSE

$2.83

+0.05 (+1.80%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.83Fund rank 19/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 7/9
High DebtDeclining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 10%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $36.9M · quality 16.7/100

Data gap 19/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.50, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 1811.HKLocal privado en este navegador · CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$12.1B

P/E

5.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

20.4x

↑

ROE

14.7%

↑

Gross Margin

66.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

3.50

↑
52-Week Range$3
$2$3

TradingView lightweight chart

1811.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.830Periodo +44.4%
Fair value: $2.830

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-11.4%

FCF CAGR

-40.7%

FCF margin

3.3%

FCF / Net income

0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.69B · net income $275.9M · FCF $55.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

66.3%+19.0% pts

Operating margin

29.1%+4.6% pts

Net margin

16.3%+8.3% pts

FCF margin

3.3%-7.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.69B$1.69B$1.95B$2.19B$2.43B
Net Income$275.9M$275.9M$248.0M$267.7M$195.1M
EBITDA$908.8M$908.8M$886.4M$917.3M$841.1M
EPS0.060.060.060.060.05
Gross Margin66.3%66.3%60.0%52.8%47.3%
Operating Margin29.1%29.1%27.6%25.6%24.5%
Net Margin16.3%16.3%12.7%12.2%8.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.503.503.943.834.35
Current Ratio0.550.55———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$55.6M$55.6M$-423.8M$36.9M$266.4M
Returns
ROE14.7%14.7%15.3%17.3%14.3%
Valuation
P/E5.665.6639.6232.2165.71
EV/EBITDA20.3920.3918.0915.5321.78
P/B6.486.486.075.589.42
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-13.2%-13.2%-11.0%-9.8%—
EPS Growth11.2%11.2%-7.4%37.1%—
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

57.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.25

Spread vs growth

-46.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

36.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.30

Spread vs growth

-25.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.49

Spread vs growth

-11.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +22.9%

Total return

+22.9%

Start / end P/E

41.3x → 44.0x

EPS bridge

0.06 → 0.06

Residual

+0.7%

EPS growth+11.2%
Multiple rerating+6.4%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.