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v0.1
1812.HK$0.79-1.25%
Fair $0.79+0.0%

1812.HK

Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited

Basic Materials / Paper & Paper ProductsHKSE

$0.79

-0.01 (-1.25%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.79Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 6/F
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 27% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.6B · quality 34.0/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 48/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

6/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 4unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 32.25, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 1812.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.3B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-917.9%

↓

Gross Margin

-39.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

32.25

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

1812.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.790Periodo -84.2%
Fair value: $0.790

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-42.2%

FCF CAGR

-54.6%

FCF margin

3.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.19B · net income $-8.30B · FCF $240.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

-39.0%-53.5% pts

Operating margin

-51.2%-58.5% pts

Net margin

-134.1%-134.7% pts

FCF margin

3.9%-4.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.19B$6.19B$22.73B$26.61B$32.00B
Net Income$-8.30B$-8.30B$-7.41B$-1.28B$189.3M
EBITDA$-5.27B$-5.27B$-3.61B$2.52B$4.58B
EPS-2.83-2.83-2.53-0.450.03
Gross Margin-39.0%-39.0%2.6%8.1%14.5%
Operating Margin-51.2%-51.2%-6.2%0.7%7.3%
Net Margin-134.1%-134.1%-32.6%-4.8%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity32.2532.253.622.512.36
Current Ratio0.180.18———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$240.0M$240.0M$2.55B$4.08B$2.56B
Returns
ROE-917.9%-917.9%-80.9%-7.7%1.0%
Valuation
P/E————86.67
EV/EBITDA———14.1010.37
P/B2.562.560.380.350.86
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-72.8%-72.8%-14.6%-16.9%—
EPS Growth-11.9%-11.9%-462.2%-1600.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +17.9%

Total return

+17.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-2.53 → -2.83

Residual

+17.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+17.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.